Contenders And Pretenders: What Sec Baseball Teams Have Real Chance At National Title

One weekend remains on the SEC baseball regular season schedule.

In less than a week, the SEC Tournament will be underway in Hoover as teams try to make one final impression on the selection committee. The SEC, as usual, is loaded with title contenders. A handful of programs view a College World Series title as a realistic expectation in 2025.

LSU is one of them. The Tigers are the unanimous No. 1 team in the country after taking two of three games from Arkansas last weekend. LSU is familiar with the path to Omaha after winning the title in 2023.

This is the time of year where the real contenders emerge. Every squad in the SEC is talented, but not everyone has the stuff to go from good to elite to College World Series champion.

Today, we'll try to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Which teams have a real shot of winning it all and who is just making noise?

Contender: LSU Tigers

LSU is the No. 1 team in the country and for good reason. The Tigers have a dynamic one-two punch in the rotation with Kade Anderson and Anthony Eyanson. The pair ranks No. 2 and No. 3 nationally in strikeouts, respectively. True freshman Casan Evans has emerged as a strong No. 3 starter, but will remain a viable bullpen option in the postseason. Wofford transfer Zac Cowan might be the most valuable reliever in the sport, too.

LSU's lineup is inconsistent, but there's star power at the top with Derek Curiel, Daniel Dickinson, and Jared Jones. When those three get hot, paired with LSU's pitching, Jay Johnson's squad is the best in the country.

Contender: Arkansas Razorbacks

Arkansas' last month was up and down. The Razorbacks swept No. 1 Texas but also dropped a series to LSU. Still, Arkansas' numbers in conference play are tough to beat. Arkansas owns a run differential of 3.96 in SEC play, the best in the conference by a wide margin.

Shortstop Wehiwa Aloy might be the best player in the country and leads all SEC hitters with 147 total bases. The defense is elite, too. Arkansas' pitching is vulnerable at times, but ace Zach Root had his best stuff when he threw eight shutout innings vs. Texas earlier this month. If Root can pitch like that, Arkansas is tough to beat.

Contender: Auburn Tigers

Auburn is peaking at the right time, riding a five-game win streak.

With Sam Dutton leading the rotation, Auburn has one of the top aces in the country. Dutton ranks No. 3 in the SEC with a 2.86 ERA. There are questions elsewhere on Auburn's staff, but having a true No. 1 at the top of the rotation is critical in the postseason.

The best mark on Auburn's resume is an April sweep of LSU. Auburn has proven it can navigate high-pressure moments vs. good teams. The clutch gene is needed in June, and Auburn has it.

Contender: Ole Miss Rebels

Ole Miss is just 14-13 and doesn't have the pedigree of the other contenders on this list, but some advanced numbers like what this Ole Miss team is capable of in the postseason. Ole Miss ranks No. 3 in the SEC in ISO batting average and can have a scoring outburst at moments notice. The offense can run too, ranking top five in the SEC in stolen bases.

The pitching staff isn't perfect, but the Rebels rank No. 6 in the SEC in strikeouts. Ole Miss is a well-rounded group that could prove to be a tough out in the tournament. I consider them a contender, even as a sleeper.

Contender: Vanderbilt Commodores

Vanderbilt is no stranger to postseason baseball. The Commodores are perennial contenders, producing MLB-level talent year after year. Vandy ranks No. 3 in the latest RPI rankings and could land a top-eight seed, allowing Vanderbilt's road to Omaha to go through Nashville.

The Commodores lead the SEC in strikeouts, and the pitching staff can go toe-to-toe with just about every team in the country. Vanderbilt's offense leaves something to be desired, ranking No. 14 in the SEC in total bases, but it hasn't stopped Vanderbilt from ranking No. 6 in the SEC in run differential.

Pretender: Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee was the national title favorite at one point this year, but the Vols have looked far from it in recent weeks. After losing a series to Vanderbilt, Tennessee isn't even projected to host a regional. There's a good chance the Vols would have to win a regional and super regional on the road to reach Omaha. That's a tall task.

Tennessee has lost five of six series. The defending champs could snap out of it at any moment, but there's too much working against Tennessee to treat the Vols as real title threats right now.

Pretender: Texas Longhorns

At 20-7 in conference play, Texas sits atop the SEC standings. So it might be a surprise to see Texas labeled as a pretender. But Texas took a big hit when ace Jared Spencer was ruled out for the season with a shoulder injury. Spencer was one of the SEC's most effective pitchers and a key piece of Texas' postseason plan.

Texas' isolated batting average ranks middle of the pack in the SEC. The Longhorns can hit, but its the pitching that set Texas apart, at-least when Spencer was in the picture. Texas still has the tools to make a run, but the Horns aren't quite as scary as they were two months ago. For now, they're a pretender.

Pretender: Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia's lineup is explosive. The Dawgs lead the SEC in total bases, isolated batting average, and home runs while ranking No. 2 in slugging and runs scored. Slate Alford and Robbie Burnett are dangerous, forming the most productive offensive duo in college baseball.

But the Bulldogs don't have enough pitching. Georgia ranks No. 12 in the SEC in ERA and No. 14 in walks allowed. A pitching staff so prone to walks typically doesn't fare well in June. There will be a time where an opposing ace keeps the UGA lineup in check and Georgia will be in a pitcher's duel. I don't think the Dawgs have the tools to win that game.

Pretender: Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma was once ranked in the top 10, but the Sooners are now below .500 in SEC play. Oklahoma ace Kyson Witherspoon has one of the best arms in the country, but Oklahoma doesn't have much behind Witherspoon.

At the plate, OU lacks power with just 56 homers on the year. Witherspoon is good enough to steal some games, but Oklahoma doesn't have the talent elsewhere to go on the road and win playoff baseball games.

Who Knows: Florida Gators

Florida is a mystery. The Gators had an impressive nonconference slate to open the season, before slumping out of the gate in SEC play. But over the last month, UF's turned it around and looks dangerous. The Gators are veterans of the postseason and know how to win these games. That experience matters in the postseason.

Florida is 13-14 in the SEC and has a chance to finish above .500 in SEC play.

The rest of the bunch

Missouri, South Carolina, and Mississippi State won't make the NCAA Tournament. The only team not mentioned here that will be in the postseason is Kentucky. The Wildcats are a veteran bunch and are scrappy, but they won't strike fear in June.

This article originally appeared on LSU Wire: SEC baseball's contenders and pretenders: Is the hype around LSU real?