Lions Vs. Jets Predictions: 4 Keys To Victory In Week 3

The Detroit Lions (1-1) and New York Jets (1-1) will square off in a Week 3 battle as coach Dan Campbell welcomes back his protégé, Aaron Glenn, to Ford Field for the first time since the former defensive coordinator left for the Big Apple.

“Our players know exactly what’s coming in here because the defensive coordinator was here for (four) years,” Campbell said of Glenn and the Jets. “Turn on the tape. … This is not going to be a trap game. This is gonna be a knockout, 60-minute brawl.“

Let’s take a closer look at this matchup and predict how the Lions will earn a victory over the Jets in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.

This week’s predictions preview is sponsored by the folks at FanDuel Sportsbook, who currently have the Lions listed at +1900 to win this year’s Super Bowl and 6.5-point favorites in Week 3.

Jets base schemes

For a detailed look at the opposing scheme, check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions Week 3 preview: Breaking down the Jets’ offensive and defensive schemes.

Prediction 1: Lions attack forward to offset Jets’ aggressiveness

Glenn’s Jets’ defense won’t look like the one he ran in Detroit (the Jets run a 3-4 base with a 2-4 subpackage), but the principles remain the same: Stop the run, press at the line of scrimmage, and take the fight to the offense.

On paper, the Jets defense ranks very highly in most statistics (including allowing the fewest yards per game this season with just 197 total ypg), and on film, they fly to the football in both the run and the pass. They plug rushing lanes up the middle with big space occupiers and downhill linebackers, and also have the range to chase laterally down the line of scrimmage. Against the pass, they play press-man coverage at the line, look comfortable in man and zone schemes, and spread out their coverages to the sidelines with their defensive backs.

The Jets’ aggressiveness has been a key catalyst in their defensive success in 2026, but this approach also leaves them vulnerable in certain areas.

For example, against the run, the Jets ask their defensive tackles to occupy multiple offensive linemen, thus freeing up gap lanes for their linebackers to fill and stop the ball carrier quickly. To offset this, the Lions will need their interior offensive linemen to win one-on-one or run movement-based blocking schemes, such as Duo or pulling guards.

Jared Goff will also need to make quick decisions because the Jets defensive line has the fastest “get off” at the snap (0.71 seconds). That being said, their time to pressure is 2.69 seconds (21st in the NFL), meaning that while the Jets have elite quickness, they can get stuck on blocks, creating opportunities for a decisive quarterback.

Over two weeks, the Jets’ aggressiveness showed up most when the Titans and/or Packers tried to move laterally with quick screens, passes to the flat, or stretch outside zone runs. The Jets are far too quick and athletic, and New York often chewed up these plays. However, with linebackers attacking downhill, the secondary living in two-high safety shells, and the corners pressing the line, there is often space to operate in the middle of the field.

Look for the Lions to be creative with a run-blocking scheme that opens lanes for Gibbs to speed through, and a forward-moving passing approach that attacks the middle of the field with their best skill players, like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.

Prediction 2: Lots of 11 personnel, keep Jets defense in nickel

While Glenn ran a ton of “Base” defense in Detroit and a fair amount during his first year with the Jets, their 2026 approach has seen them play more nickel sets (roughly 77% of the time). While this brings them closer to the league average, their production in Base has been higher.

When in a Base defensive set, the Jets have produced impressive numbers, including a -0.58 EPA, best in the NFL. However, when the Jets move to a subpackage look, their production dips, producing a 0.18 EPA and ranking 13th in the NFL. This shows up against both the run and the pass, as they drop from the top of the rankings in Base to the middle of the pack in subpackages.

By running a lot of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR sets), the Lions will not only get their best skill players on the field at the same time, but it will also help lighten the box, set up cleaner rush lanes, and open up opportunities with play-action and in the intermediate passing game.

Prediction 3: Lions deploy Base defense to stop the run

On the flip side, the Lions will want to stay in their Base defense, especially early in the game, and work to take the Jets’ rushing attack away.

NFL teams strive for a balanced run/pass split with their offensive play calls, but the reality is, this is a passing league, and more often than not, teams default to throwing the ball to gain positive yards quickly. Glenn, like Campbell, wants to control the game with the run, and through two weeks, their run/pass split is roughly 44%/56%, resulting in the eighth-highest rushing rate and fourth-most rushing attempts entering Week 3.

Despite the dedication to and opportunities in the run game, the Jets are only producing 3.3 yards per rushing attempt (28th) with a -0.20 EPA (28th). One main reason for this lack of production is that their offensive line isn’t getting much push. Most blocking calls are one-on-one matchups where the offensive line is asked to win, or simple inside/outside zone calls, and over two games, New York hasn’t shown much creativity in blocking assignments. As a result, about 30% of their runs gain no positive yardage, and their rushing yards before contact are just 0.76 (24th) as a team, and 0.6 for starting running back Breece Hall.

The Jets have shown a dedication to the run, the Lions a dedication to stopping it, and Base defense allows the Lions to get their best run defenders on the field to win this battle in the trenches.

Prediction 4: Lions pass rush turns pressures into sacks

While the Jets’ run blocking has lacked impact, their pass blocking has been very good, as Jeremy Reisman pointed out in his game observations post; the Jets offensive line currently has PFF’s highest pass-blocking grade (77.4).

In Week 1, the Jets didn’t allow a sack to the Titans, and while they did give up four sacks to the Packers, many were coverage-based rather than pressure getting home, as shown by their time-to-pressure allowed numbers (2.76 seconds, 13th in the NFL).

However, the Jets have surrendered 33 pressures through two games (28th), indicating a few things. First, quarterback Geno Smith is holding onto the ball (he averages 2.97 seconds per throw, 7th longest), and his line is holding up just long enough to keep him upright. Second, Smith still has enough mobility (at 35 years old) to stretch his time in the pocket. And lastly, neither the Titans nor the Packers could consistently generate a pass rush that could finish.

Bottom line, the Jets’ offensive line and veteran quarterback have felt some heat, but have mitigated that pressure for the most part.

If the Lions want to disrupt the Jets’ success, they’ll need to turn those pressures into sacks. For this to happen, the Lions will need to keep their aggressive approach on the defensive line, deploying stunts and pulls and continuing to generate pressure at a high rate. Through two games, the Lions’ time to pressure is 2.51 seconds (sixth fastest in the NFL), resulting in 39 pressures (fifth most in the NFL) and seven sacks (fourth).

Entering Week 3, Aidan Hutchinson ranks third in the NFL in pressures (14) and sacks (3), but he’ll need help from his other starting defensive linemen: DJ Wonnum (six pressures, no sacks), Alim McNeill (four pressures, one sack), and Tyleik Williams (four pressures, no sacks).