Fantasy Football Storylines: Will Bryce Young's Breakout Continue In Week 3?

My family and I moved into a new house in late May. It's twice the size of our old place. To give you an idea, we just hosted my son's 13th birthday party, let all the kids into the basement and it was (almost too) quiet upstairs. We love it. But it's taken time to get used to it. For weeks, I'd move about my bedroom with the muscle memory of years past. I had to mentally accept my new reality.

Week 3 is where realness like that should start to set in for us. There's no more time to hold on to preseason priors. We're about a fifth of the way into the season. And we're still adjusting to what we've seen. So, to help, I went through the mental exercise of what to do about a few teams, should their output through two games continue for the rest of the year.

The Falcons (Finally) Have Their QB1 (Again)

I'll be honest. I thought after Michael Penix Jr. threw a pick on his first drive, I'd have to hunt positive takeaways. Either that or offer up thoughts and prayers to the good folks in Atlanta. But I was sold well before the end of the game.

Of course, Bijan Robinson's 213-scrimmage-yard evening would make any QB's life easier. Over a third of his carries turned into a first down or a score. The counterargument to a positive night for Penix is that his RB did all of the heavy lifting. But in obvious passing situations, he excelled where his teammates failed.

• Yards-to-the-Sticks Required (Third Downs): 8.1 (Penix), 8.6 (Rush), 7.6 (Strand)

• Avg. Time to Throw: 2.08, 2.40, 2.36

• Success Rate: 50.0%, 20.0%, 15.4%

Penix knowing where to throw the ball a beat after the snap was all the Falcons needed. Despite the Packers blitzing him on 37.6% of his third-down dropbacks, Atlanta converted four times. That's more than the past two weeks combined. But as the above clip highlights, who Penix was targeting is the main storyline.

• Target Rate: 43.5%

• Air Yard Share: 48.2%

• Targets per Route Run: 0.42

We should've seen this Drake London performance coming. All of his outings of 150 yards or more have come with Penix under center. The timing on outbreakers and Penix's ability to rifle a ball to the middle of the field enable the success on the ground and through the air that makes an offense work.

Robinson's 23.3 touches per game and explosive running style will always keep him in the RB1 discussion. But a healthy, functional QB is what drafters at the 1.01 or 1.02 needed. Same with gamers who picked up London in the second round. Penix is the efficiency tide that will lift most boats, giving us more confidence in starting the primary ATL skill players — as long as he's healthy.

Cincinnati Is Good at Real Football, Not Fantasy Football

If I had to guess, here's what fantasy managers were expecting when they drafted the Bengals' triumvirate during the early rounds.

I'll never get tired of watching this game or referring to it in my content. But only because I know the outcome. Cincinnati fans like myself have lived this life since '21. Joe Burrow pumps hope into our hearts only for the defense to stomp it out moments later. It was a rollercoaster for us, but a fantasy ATM for everyone else.

• 2025: 2nd (Passing PPG Rank), 10th (Passing Success Rate) 

• 2024: 2nd, 3rd 

• 2023: 5th, 12th 

• 2022: 5th, 4th 

The see-saw effect of Burrow's many multi-game absences is his affinity to sling it when healthy. He's been a top-five volume passer and, at worst, posted above-average efficiency metrics over his last four seasons. In 2024, the top QB in yards per game was No. 9. It's why we had no problem keeping Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins as top-36 targets. Their talent and situation are hard to replicate. But after two games, high-end talent may be all they have.

Admittedly, this concept of "complementary football" is foreign to me. But I will say that being a fan of a team with a defense that can close out games is a nice change of pace. But that's not why we bought into the Bengals. 

Shootouts, a negative point differential and the game being on Burrow's right shoulder were what we envisioned. Instead, Dexter Lawrence and the rest of the defensive additions have taken center stage. Sure, Chase always finds a way to take the spotlight. But neither Chase nor Higgins has eclipsed 100 yards in a game yet. And we can't always bank on two scores to buoy point totals.

However, this isn't much different than years past. 

The "start slow" narrative has merit, but it hasn't come at the cost of volume. Burrow is 11th in dropbacks per game, and the Bengals rank fifth in PROE. It's the efficiency that still has some rust on it. Said another way, the defense hasn't changed Cincinnati's offensive approach. Besides, even if the team continued down this (wonderful) road of high-end offense and above-average defense, Week 2 showed us how Burrow's WRs can pay off their ADP.

• Target Share: 29.0% (Chase), 32.3% (Higgins)

• Air Yard Share: 48.9%, 48.3%

• Targets per Route Run: 0.26, 0.35

The dynamic duo combined for over 60% of Burrow's passes and a smooth 97.3% of his air yards. All in a game where their team's win probability stayed above 60% for half of it. And with the schedule opening up, the ceiling games for Cincinnati's aerial attack should be right around the corner.

Bryce Young Finally Breaks Out

I was so stuck on the Falcons' offense crumbling last Sunday that I forgot about the success of the QB on the other side.

Well, let me play devil's advocate first before we rush to conclusions. Bryce Young's schedule has worked to his benefit. Playing the hapless Bears and then Atlanta's QB2 and QB3 does take some of the pressure off a starter. However, speaking of pressure, Young's still seeing plenty of it during these "easy" matchups.

• Pressure Rate: 42.5%, 26th (out of 32 qualifiers – min. 36 dropbacks)

• Passing Success Rate: 48.1%, 12th 

• EPA per Dropback: 0.27, 7th 

In fact, Young's protection has broken down more times per game in '26 than last year. Partly due to his dropback rate ticking up, but the quality of his offensive line has taken a step back as the 25th-ranked unit in pass-block win rate. And yet, Young has posted top-12 marks throwing the ball.

There are a couple of drivers for Young's apparent improvement. In clean pockets, he can use his pocket movement to shift defenders in one direction while a route opens elsewhere. But even when under duress, Young's ball placement has been stellar. His -0.27% CPOE when the pocket breaks down is better than Josh Allen's (-4.1%), Drake Maye's (-4.1%), Dak Prescott's (10.8%) and Joe Burrow's (-20.4%). It's part of why I'd be happy to have Tetairoa McMillan on my roster, assuming Young continues this style of play. 

The early season story has been about Jalen Coker and his added explosive element to the Panthers' passing game. But it's McMillan who's taken 42.9% of Young's passes when facing pressure. And despite the low output in Week 1, his opportunity metrics are sliding back into WR1 territory.

• Target Rate: 27.3%

• Air Yard Share: 39.3%

• Yards per Route Run: 2.35

I'd like to see more interior routes with lay-up looks to boost his floor. But his connection with Young in the intermediate part of the field hasn't faltered. And with a date against the Browns' secondary coming up, I'd expect McMillan in the WR1 conversation by Sunday night.

The Murray-McCarthy-Wentz Debate Continues

Think about every saying regarding first impressions. They're everlasting or hard to make up for, should things go wrong. That's what makes Kyler Murray's return to the field all the more pivotal. Everyone still remembers how things started for the Vikings' new QB1.

Coincidentally, the Packers tried the same defensive strategy as Minnesota. Just not to the same extent. On Murray's seven dropbacks, five or more defenders came at him on three of them (42.9%). Green Bay had Murray under duress on four of seven (57.1%). It doesn't excuse the Hail Mary-turned-interception. But let's not act like Carson Wentz's return was a marked improvement.

• (Week 1) EPA per Dropback: 0.2, 11th (out of 32 starters)

• Passing Success Rate: 40.9%, 23rd 

• Completion Percentage Over Expected: -7.3%, 27th 

If Thursday night was any indication, moving the ball against the Packers doesn't require elite talent (well, that Bijan Robinson guy is pretty good). But results are results. Week 1 was Justin Jefferson's first two-TD game since '24. Both RBs found the paint. Despite Wentz's output lagging behind his peers, Vikings fans and fantasy managers got what they needed. Accordingly, we should assume Murray brings more to the offense with more than seven dropbacks to showcase his skills.

Wentz was already up to six sacks by the end of Week 2. Five of them came when holding onto the ball longer than 2.5 seconds. Half occurred on third down. Meanwhile, Murray was already showing off his mobility on two scrambles. Yes, one of which ended up with him out of the game. But there were other signs. 

Murray averaged less than 2.5 seconds to throw on his final three passes. Two of them were to Jefferson. It took a rain game and the Bears' defense to put Wentz in his comfort zone. And even then, the lapses in processing came. 

A slow restart (?) from Murray against the Bucs would revive the Murray-J.J. McCarthy debate from the offseason. Tampa's defense does have the third-highest blitz rate, setting up a similar environment to Murray's debut. But with the understanding of the offense he's already demonstrated (INT notwithstanding), a full game out of the veteran QB should put him back in our good graces.