Fantasy Football Matchups To Exploit: Look To Panthers-browns For Points In Week 3

Two weeks into the NFL season, defensive rankings are starting to look useful. They can also get you into trouble.

We are still dealing with small samples. One bad game can make a defense look like a matchup we need to attack every week, while one slow performance can hide an issue that becomes much more obvious over time. So when I am looking for matchups to exploit this early in the season, I want to start with the player first.

Give me the role. Give me the usage. Give me something happening within the offense that I already believe in. Then we can use the opponent to figure out where it makes sense to get more aggressive than consensus.

Here are five spots I want to attack in Week 3.

Bryce Young, QB, Panthers at Browns

Bryce Young has been on an absolute heater to start the season.

You can say whatever you want about the opponents, but Young can play only the teams on his schedule. Through two games, he has completed 46-of-73 passes for 648 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. He threw for 361 yards and three touchdowns against Chicago, then followed it up with 287 yards and three more scores against Atlanta.

More important than the box score is how different this Brad Idzik-led Carolina offense looks. Young is playing with confidence. The offense feels tailored to what he does well and Carolina is giving him opportunities to push the ball through the air instead of asking him to survive every dropback.

Now, he gets Cleveland.

The Browns have allowed 19.0 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks through two weeks and 0.151 EPA per opponent dropback across 64 dropbacks. Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdowns against them in Week 1.

This will not be easy on the road, especially with Carolina sitting as a 2.5-point favorite in a game with a modest 41.5-point total. Still, Young has legitimate weapons on the outside and another big red-zone target in Darren Waller. I think the pieces are there for his strong play to continue.

I have Young as my QB13 compared to QB16 in Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). My projection is actually much more conservative than what he has produced so far, with 213 passing yards, 1.7 passing touchdowns, 14 rushing yards and 16.5 fantasy points. His simulation ceiling sits at 26 points.

If you are looking outside the obvious top-10 quarterbacks this week, Young is one of my favorite streaming options.

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Panthers at Browns

A lot of fantasy managers entered the season worried about Jonathon Brooks taking work away from Chuba Hubbard.

Two games in, Hubbard just keeps producing.

He has 22 carries for 102 yards and a touchdown, but what has really stood out has been his work in the receiving game. Hubbard has caught all five of his targets for 49 yards and two touchdowns. Young is looking for him as a receiver and that type of usage gives Hubbard another path to fantasy production beyond simply grinding out carries.

He also led Brooks in touches again in Week 2 before Brooks exited with a groin issue.

We saw Bucky Irving have success against Cleveland and while Jacksonville did not need to lean heavily on its running game, the underlying numbers still create an interesting spot for Carolina. Cleveland has allowed 0.063 EPA per rush and a 50.0 percent rushing success rate on 54 qualifying opponent rushes.

That is where the combination gets interesting to me. Hubbard has the lead role, he is getting scoring opportunities and his quarterback is involving him in the passing game.

I have Hubbard ranked as my RB9 compared to RB18 in half-PPR ECR, with 14.4 carries, 3.2 targets and 17.2 half-PPR points in my projection.

No, I do not expect him to continue scoring three touchdowns every 27 touches. That is not the bet. The bet is that Hubbard continues functioning as the bell-cow running back in an improving offense. If that role remains intact, he is an aggressive RB2 start for me in Week 3.

Josh Downs, WR, Colts vs. Texans

Houston is one of those defenses that looks intimidating when you see the name.

Then you look a little closer.

The Texans have already given up quite a few yards through the air against Buffalo and Cincinnati. Obviously, Daniel Jones is not Josh Allen or Joe Burrow, but this is less about expecting Indianapolis to duplicate those offenses and more about identifying where the Colts can attack Houston.

Josh Downs makes a lot of sense.

Through two games, Downs has 13 targets, nine catches and 109 receiving yards. The important number for me came last week, when his role expanded to nine targets. He caught seven of them for 72 yards.

That is the signal.

Downs is stepping into a primary role inside this passing attack and this is exactly the type of matchup where his skill set can cause problems. Houston has allowed 39 targets and 369 receiving yards to wide receivers through two games. Opposing wide receivers have averaged 43.0 PPR points per game against this defense.

I have Downs projected as WR11 compared to WR38 in consensus rankings, easily the largest gap between my projections and ECR in this article.

I am not telling you that Downs has to be treated like a top-12 wide receiver this week. That is not the point. The point is that WR38 is far too low for the opportunity I expect him to receive.

If you are deciding between Downs and the typical WR3 or flex options, I am getting him into the lineup.

Quinshon Judkins, RB, Browns vs. Panthers

This is the type of matchup Quinshon Judkins needs.

The rushing efficiency has not been there yet. Judkins has 24 carries for only 54 yards through two games. Still, Cleveland continues feeding him the football. He handled 17 touches in Week 2, including five receptions and now has seven catches for 44 yards on the season.

He is the lead back. Now, we need the efficiency to follow.

Carolina gave up a ton of rushing production to D'Andre Swift in Week 1. Atlanta was unable to find the same success last week, but you can't even project them while the inoperable Cooper Rush was at the helm. Had Atlanta been able to present more of a passing threat, there may have been considerably more room for Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr. to operate.

Through two games, Carolina has allowed 347 rushing yards and another 59 receiving yards to running backs. Opposing backfields are averaging 36.3 PPR points per game and the Panthers have surrendered 0.114 EPA per rush.

There is also a run-concept piece I really like here.

Inside zone has been Judkins' most-used concept. He has averaged only 2.4 yards per carry on eight attempts, so again, we are not pretending he has been running well. Carolina has allowed 7.1 yards per carry on 13 inside-zone attempts, which RotoBot identifies as the worst rate in the league.

Eight carries and 13 defensive attempts are tiny samples, but the matchup fits what Cleveland already wants Judkins to do.

I have him as my RB21 compared to RB25 in ECR with 14.8 carries, 4.1 targets and 10.6 half-PPR points projected.

Judkins is already getting the work. Against Carolina, this could finally be the week where the production catches up.

Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens at Cowboys

Dallas' defense has not been very good.

Sometimes we do not need to make this more complicated than it needs to be.

The Cowboys have allowed 0.350 EPA per opponent dropback through two games. Tight ends have averaged 16.9 PPR points per game against Dallas and now Baltimore comes to town carrying a 28.0-point implied team total in a game with a 52.5 point total, the highest on the Week 3 slate in the local market snapshot.

That is a good environment for Mark Andrews.

The Cowboys already have enough to worry about dealing with Lamar Jackson as both a passer and runner. Andrews remains one of the more underrated veteran tight ends in football and he is a player Lamar trusts, particularly when the field gets condensed.

Through two games, Andrews has 13 targets, 10 catches and 98 yards. He caught 6-of-7 targets for 49 yards last week and still has not scored a touchdown.

With Zay Flowers likely out, Andrews also becomes even more important in this passing attack alongside Rashod Bateman.

I am not projecting some nuclear tight end performance here. I have Andrews as my TE9 compared to TE12 in ECR with five targets, 9.1 half-PPR points and a little better than a 50 percent projected chance at a touchdown.

This is simply a spot where the player, quarterback and scoring environment all line up. Andrews is a TE1 for me and I like his chances of finally finding the end zone.

Week 3 is where matchup data starts becoming more tempting, but I still do not want the matchup making the decision for me.

Downs is my most aggressive call compared to consensus. Young has earned a spot in your fantasy lineup while this Carolina offense is rolling. Hubbard continues to control a valuable backfield. Judkins finally gets a matchup that could unlock some efficiency and Andrews enters one of the best scoring environments on the slate.

Start with the role. Then use the matchup to decide where to get aggressive.