Door Ding Caught On Videos - Going Through Small Claims - Am I In A Good Spot?

Location: Virginia

Hey folks, throwaway account here - I’d really appreciate your honest thoughts. I’m planning to file a small claims suit in Virginia over repeated door damage from a neighbor and have gathered quite a bit of evidence:

What Happened:

• I park in a reserved spot at my apartment complex and recently had a dashcam mounted on the second-row window, pointed directly at my neighbor’s car.
• Over the past 4-6 weeks, I’ve captured at least 10 instances of their door swinging into my driver-side doors - even once involving someone that is not the registered owner of the vehicle.
• I barely drove my car during this time. I mostly just moved it to check the dashcam footage and record the impacts.

What Evidence I’ve Got:

• Dashcam clips of contact (some soft, some hard)
• “Clean” baseline photo from after a ceramic coating - no dents or marks
• Body shop estimate confirming the dents match repeated door-dings
• Detailer’s note stating the damage appeared after coating and aligns with those impacts
• A police report
• Insurance denial, with the adjuster saying they asked the neighbor and got responses like “not familiar with the damages” and “they tried to hold the door” instead of taking responsibility

Questions I’m Wrestling With:

1. Do I realistically have a shot at getting full reimbursement in VA small claims?
2. Am I missing any key documentation or steps that could strengthen - or weaken - my case?
3. If the defendant appeals, what kind of procedural challenges should I expect - and might their insurer end up assigning a lawyer?
4. In your experience, do insurers sometimes settle once a small claims suit is filed, or is that pretty rare?

Thanks in advance!