Mortgage Rates Stay Below 6.8% As Inflation Holds Steady

Mortgage rates — which have stayed remarkably consistent for much of 2025 — dipped to a new low point for the year last week, reaching 6.57%, according to Mortgage Daily News. The following day, HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center reported the 30-year conforming fixed rate at 6.86%.

This week, HousingWire’s data revealed that the 30-year fixed rate was 6.79%. Rates for 30-year loans through the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) dropped to 6.49%, down from last week’s figure of 6.55%, while rates for jumbo loans shed 3 basis points to 6.43%.

“We’ve had no real movement on the 10-year yield before the two Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports we will get over the next two days,” HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami said on Monday.

The July CPI, released Tuesday morning by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, stayed steady at 2.7% annually. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.2% from June.

“Today’s CPI report for mortgage rates was not as concerning as some had feared,” Mohtashami said Tuesday morning. “Initially, this caused the 10-year yield to decrease, but it later increased by a few basis points, resulting in a mixed outcome.

“However, it appears that a rate cut in September is likely, unless there is a significant improvement in labor data. Because mortgage spreads have gotten better in 2025, mortgage rates are roughly at year-to-date lows.”

Will a rate cut materialize?

Tuesday’s CPI painted a fuzzy picture about whether a rate cut can be expected next month, according to First American senior economist Sam Williamson. While the numbers aren’t increasing drastically, inflation is still relatively hot.

In late July, the Federal Reserve once again held its policy rate steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. A September cut is anticipated, but Williamson said the Fed may take pause.

“The Federal Reserve may keep the door open to rate cuts later this year, but will likely want firmer evidence that tariff and labor-related costs aren’t feeding into broader, persistent inflation,” he said. “Core CPI increased 0.3% month over month and 3.1% year over year, a bit above expectations.”

Although a potential cut in benchmark rates — and a corresponding drop in mortgage rates — would be a welcome sign for homebuyers, the rate alone shouldn’t dictate buyer decisions, said Christopher Davis, associate vice president of residential lending at Navy Federal Credit Union.

“It’s important to emphasize that whether rates are high or low, many buyers don’t have the luxury of timing the market, so in many cases the right home and the right loan matter more than the rate at the moment,” Davis said.

“It’s also worth noting that the current higher interest rates may mean less competition for homes for buyers,” Davis said. “Similarly, rate decreases may lead to a market with increased competition for buyers.”

Melissa Cohn, regional vice president for William Raveis Mortgage, offered a similar sentiment.

“If you don’t qualify conventionally for the best rate, then the rate is meaningless,” she said. “My job as an originator is to get my clients approved and closed at the best possible rate that they qualify for. It is our duty to offer all the different types of loans, including non-QM options, in order to get approved.

“Also, if you are buying a condo or co-op, you need to make sure that the building will be approved by the lender as well,” Cohn added. “I take a look at the whole profile of the buyer — credit, income, assets, property type — and then offer the best deal based on their financial profile and the property that they are buying. Shopping for a rate is great, but shopping for loan approval is better.”