6 Senior Living Leaders Weigh In On Future Development Outlook 

Editor’s Note: Below is a compilation of six senior living executives that will be speaking at the 2025 BUILD-BRAIN conference in Dallas, Texas. Hear more insights like these during our two-day event. Tickets are available here. 

The landscape for senior living development heading into 2026 is a mix of both opportunities and challenges.

High interest rates, construction costs and copious acquisition options have challenged new development from panning out in recent years, but some operators continue to push forward on new projects.

At its current rate of new construction, the industry is staring down a shortfall of roughly 595,000 units by 2030. With replacement costs averaging about $450,000 per unit, that marks an estimated $275 billion investment gap, according to NIC MAP data.

Design trends for those currently developing new properties are increasingly geared towards baby boomers with an emphasis on wellness, personalization and social connectivity.

The historic low in new development comes as occupancy and demand for senior living continues to climb. Adaptive reuse, expansion projects and overhauls of amenities to existing communities has been a popular growth option for operators as of late.

Greg Roderick, Frontier Senior Living CEO

​​What challenges to new development do you believe will be the most persistent heading into 2026?

Equity. Debt has returned to our space and the fundamentals are improving quickly. Although not to pre-pandemic levels, but occupancy and NOI are clearly returning to those levels in the coming 12-months. Therefore, the investment community will soon follow and this will inject a new excitement to the return of growth to our industry. So, I do see Equity returning to our space, but it is very cautious at the moment and I expect that to break loose in 2026.

How are design trends evolving to meet the expectations of today’s senior living customers?

When looking forward to the next generation of seniors (baby boomers), we feel that there are distinctive design elements that must be considered. The Boomers are a social, active, well-traveled and cultured population who appreciate food and beverage, who are the first of the Nike generation (exercise) and who have traveled to nice places, with nice accommodations, and even enjoyed the spa treatments that were offered. With this in mind, at Frontier we have incorporated dining venues, wine lounges, multiple exercise spaces, warm and soft colors, with many interior and exterior destinations. In some of our newly developed properties, we have swimming pools, pickleball courts, multiple dining venues, a market, and tremendous outdoor opportunities for exercise, gardening and pet areas. In visiting with friends in our industry, this is a trend across the country.

How are you evaluating where to engage with new senior living development in 2025, and how do current capital relationships shape those plans?

Being based in Dallas, Texas and also being a national operator of seniors housing communities, we are in a great position to see the opportunities. With leadership located across the nation, we have an understanding of job growth, population growth, healthcare systems and tax advantages in a variety of regions. Additionally, our involvement with industry associations gives us an opportunity to network with friends and peers routinely. As far as capital relationships, we are talking, frequently, with a number of interested parties to create partnerships or joint ventures, along with existing partners and clients who are looking to advance this investment sector.

What is your outlook for new development in 2026?

Through our existing clients and partner network, we have sites identified for 2 or 3 new construction starts for the balance of 2025 opening in late 2026 or mid-2027. I expect that we will be able to continue on that trajectory for the next several years. As far as our industry, I do expect that construction starts will experience steady growth and year over year growth for the next 5 to 10-years. There are still repositioning of older properties that will take place and conversions from hotel to seniors housing that will take place.

Laurie Schultz, Avenue Development Co-Founder

What challenges to new development do you believe will be the most persistent heading into 2026?

Challenges to new development heading into 2026 will be most persistent in three key areas: capital constraints, market dynamics, and operational efficiency.

Acquisition opportunities below replacement cost are creating a powerful headwind, making it difficult to justify the higher per-unit cost of a ground-up build. This is a direct result of an uncertain political and economic environment, which has constrained capital, particularly equity investment. For 2026, new construction capital will remain sparse, but it will be available for projects in high-demand, high barrier-to-entry submarkets with strong operating fundamentals. To attract new capital, the industry must demonstrate a shift toward a more efficient operational model. This requires developers to realistically achieve proforma underwriting in order to build investor confidence. Additionally, innovation will be key, specifically in catering to the Baby Boomer consumer.

How are design trends evolving to meet the expectations of today’s senior living customers?

Design trends in senior living are evolving to reflect the preferences of the Baby Boomer generation, moving away from a traditional, one-size-fits-all approach to a model that emphasizes personalization, community, and wellness.

Avenue’s experience in active adult with our Viva Bene brand has given us early insights into the Boomer generations’ expectations that will likely continue into higher acuity settings. Boomers value individuality and choice. This is directly impacting design through a focus on customization and high-end finishes, instead of prioritizing a larger living space.

The rise of the “Solo Ager”—seniors without a spouse or children—is also driving significant changes in amenity design. These residents are seeking intentional community and multiple options for socializing, rather than a single large activity room. Design is shifting toward smaller, flexible common areas that offer a variety of spaces for social interaction, from cozy reading nooks to communal hobby areas.

Furthermore, a holistic approach to wellness is becoming a central design pillar. This extends beyond basic fitness centers to include spaces for preventative health services and care coordination. As many seniors no longer have family to help them navigate the healthcare system, communities are designing spaces and services that integrate health and wellness into daily life, providing residents with greater peace of mind and independence.

How are you evaluating where to engage with new senior living development in 2025, and how do current capital relationships shape those plans?

Avenue is evaluating senior living development by focusing on projects with robust local support and justifiable underwriting, while navigating a challenging capital market environment. Our primary focus for new development is on projects with strong fundamentals that can be supported by the broader community. This involves leveraging municipal and state economic incentives to bridge the underwriting gaps caused by high interest rates and elevated construction and operational costs. Many municipalities are now including senior living in their strategic plans, recognizing the importance of a well-planned continuum of senior housing, which creates a more favorable environment for development.

The current capital market is highly selective, but our strategy is to match the right capital partner to the right project. While some capital partners are geographically constrained, we believe that each development has a unique story that can attract a suitable investor. If a project has solid underwriting and strong community support, capital will be available.

What is your outlook for new development in 2026?

The outlook for new development in 2026 is marked by a critical need for new supply, yet hindered by a challenging capital environment.

The shortage of age-restricted housing is becoming more acute. The combination of an aging Baby Boomer demographic and a constrained development cycle has created an undeniable supply-demand imbalance. While many are still focused on recapitalizing or selling off assets from the pandemic-era development and lease-up challenges, the sheer, undeniable demand for senior living will compel a shift toward new construction, given the right product type.

The key to unlocking development capital lies in a project strategy focused on a purposeful resident lifestyle that drives demand, and ultimately increases project yield. The answers are not always in the hard cost line items which will be affected by minor tariff impacts and business climate uncertainty. We believe that by creating a differentiated product that aligns with resident expectations, we can shorten proforma lease-up assumptions and drive higher rental values, making new development more attractive to capital. The imperative is not to wait for the next development cycle but to actively create the conditions for it to begin.

Heather Tussing, Aspenwood Company President

What challenges to new development do you believe will be the most persistent heading into 2026?

While 2026 holds a lot of promise for new development, the headwinds of high interest rates and elevated construction costs will likely remain. These factors continue to put pressure on project feasibility and timelines, and I don’t expect them to ease quickly.

How are design trends evolving to meet the expectations of today’s senior living customers?

Today’s senior living customers expect more than a place to live — they want a lifestyle that reflects how they’ve always lived. We focus on luxury urban infill communities that allow residents to remain connected to the neighborhoods and amenities they already enjoy. Being within walking distance of favorite restaurants, shops, cultural venues, and healthcare providers is a priority. Creating a vibrant community within a thriving community ensures we’re meeting both personal and lifestyle expectations.

How are you evaluating where to engage with new senior living development in 2025, and how do current capital relationships shape those plans?

We are actively scouting opportunities for future luxury developments, with a focus on markets where demand and demographics align with our brand vision. Strong, collaborative relationships with our capital partners give us the flexibility to be strategic and intentional, ensuring each new project is positioned for long-term success.

What is your outlook for new development in 2026?

I anticipate 2026 will be a transitional year. While the pace of new openings may remain slow, I expect to see more groundbreaking activity as developers position themselves for the next growth cycle. This groundwork will set the stage for a more active development environment in the years that follow.

Innovation Senior Living Pilar Carvajal, CEO and Founder

What challenges to new development do you believe will be the most persistent heading into 2026?

The most persistent challenges will remain tied to capital and costs. The capital stack is still constrained by high interest rates and cautious lending environments, while construction costs remain elevated due to labor shortages and supply chain pressures. Zoning and entitlement delays also add layers of friction. For middle-income development in particular, the economics are tough, traditional models simply don’t pencil out, which is why service-light, capital-light concepts like the Longevity Day Club are so critical.

How are design trends evolving to meet the expectations of today’s senior living customers?

Design is evolving toward flexibility, wellness, and authenticity. Today’s seniors want environments that feel less institutional and more like hospitality or boutique living, bright, open social spaces, natural light, café-style amenities, and access to outdoor living. At the same time, design is reflecting scientific wellness trends: spaces for cognitive fitness, telehealth integration, and intergenerational programming. The expectation is no longer just a nice apartment and dining room, it’s a lifestyle experience that reinforces longevity, choice, and connection.

How are you evaluating where to engage with new senior living development in 2025, and how do current capital relationships shape those plans?

We are being highly selective about where we engage, looking for markets with deep middle-income senior populations and limited new supply. Aging suburban areas with few affordable options present the greatest opportunity. Current capital relationships are shaping plans in two ways: (1) the emphasis is on re-use and repositioning of existing real estate where possible, since it’s faster and less capital-intensive; and (2) equity partners and lenders are prioritizing innovative models that can demonstrate both affordability and scalability. We’re aligning our development strategy with investors who understand that traditional high-end models will not serve the majority of future demand.

What is your outlook for new development in 2026?

By 2026, I see new development activity increasing, but not in the traditional sense. High-end luxury projects will continue in select markets, but the growth story will be in adaptive reuse and community-based, service-rich models that extend beyond the four walls of a residence. The industry will need to embrace hybrid models, like the Longevity Day Club, that can reach the middle-market senior, control costs, and deliver on the overwhelming preference to age at home. In other words, development will be less about building “more of the same” and more about reimagining what senior living looks like for the next generation.

12 Oaks Senior Living President Greg Puklicz

What challenges to new development do you believe will be the most persistent heading into 2026?

Current rent levels generally do not support the cost for development of a new community except for very select, high end markets. Construction hard costs have inflated significantly over the past few years, and this factor along with continued elevated interest rates, do not provide for an economic return on new development.

How are design trends evolving to meet the expectations of today’s senior living customers?

We will see more emphasis on common areas and amenities, as well as inclusion of more office, therapy and treatment areas to facilitate higher levels of service to residents with the advent of value based care.

How are you evaluating where to engage with new senior living development in 2025, and how do current capital relationships shape those plans?

Until such time as new development becomes economically viable on a widespread basis, we are focusing our attention on light value-add opportunities that are far more prevalent in the marketplace, where communities are trading at a discount to replacement cost.

What is your outlook for new development in 2026?

We do not see ourselves participating in new developments in our regions, in 2026, due to the lack of economic viability.

Serenbe Founder Steve Nygren

What challenges to new development do you believe will be the most persistent heading into 2026?

Coming into 2026, some of the new development challenges I foresee may be related to funding and regulations. Specifically, as they relate to progressive and uncommon ideas in approaching projects.

How are design trends evolving to meet the expectations of today’s senior living customers?

Seniors are more active than ever. As part of their active lifestyles, they’re seeking accommodations and residents that incorporate intergenerational living. In communities across the country, including our own [at] Serenbe, have ways that seniors can interact with people of all ages.

How are you evaluating where to engage with new senior living development in 2025, and how do current capital relationships shape those plans?

There is a growing hunger for a new approach to housing for seniors—one that reflects the needs of a more active baby boomer generation now entering elderhood. While early adopters typically represent only 5–10% of any market, that still translates to 300,000–400,000 people each year seeking a fresh model for how and where they live.

What is your outlook for new development in 2026?

At Serenbe, we plan to break ground on a new village model of 97 units. The design emphasizes social life within the club while placing most services along the street, creating an active and engaging streetscape. This stands in contrast to the conventional institutional model where all services are centralized under one corporation.

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