Rationale, Design, And Baseline Characteristics Of The Target (targeted Assessment And Recruitment Of Geriatrics For Effective Fall Prevention Treatments) Cohort Of Older Adults For Assessing Fall And Fracture Risk: Prospective Cohort Study

Background: Falls and fractures are a major clinical concern for older adults. International clinical guidelines recommend annual fall risk screening for all adults aged 60 years and older. However, existing falls risk–screening algorithms have shown limited sensitivity and specificity in detecting future falls. Emerging health technologies, including wearable sensors, in-silico finite element models (FEMs), and virtual reality (VR) technology, show promise in enhancing fall and fracture risk assessments by providing more personalized objective data to support targeted primary prevention. However, large-scale longitudinal studies are required to evaluate their predictive accuracy and cost-effectiveness for systematic community–based screening. Objective: The TARGET (Targeted Assessment and Recruitment of Geriatrics for Effective Fall Prevention Treatments) study is an ongoing national prospective cohort study in Singapore designed to develop cost-effective and scalable frameworks for the early detection and prevention of falls and fractures using novel health technologies. This paper describes the rationale, design, and baseline characteristics of TARGET, and provides preliminary insights into how these novel technologies perform in discriminating between older adults with and with no history of falls at study baseline. Methods: A total of 2291 community-dwelling Singapore residents aged ≥60 years were enrolled between 2022 and 2024. Participants underwent a comprehensive baseline fall risk assessment comprising (1) home-based interview to assess sociodemographic, anthropometric, cognitive, physical, functional, and psychosocial status; (2) gait assessment using wearable inertial measurement units (IMUs) motion sensors; (3) dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and whole-body 3D scans to construct subject-specific FEMs; and (4) VR-based cognitive assessment to probe spatial navigation deficits. Prospective follow-up for 2 years is ongoing, with linkage to national electronic medical records (EMRs) to obtain detailed clinical, medication, and pathological data. Results: Of the total cohort, 58% (1327/2291) were female, with a mean age of 74.6 years at baseline. TARGET represents a relatively healthy older adult population, with 83% (1898/2291) remaining fully independent, 44% (1016/2290) with mild cognitive impairment, 50% (440/879) with osteopenia, and 15% (358/2291) reporting falls in the past year. Significant baseline functional, psychosocial, cognitive, and biomechanical differences were identified between fallers and nonfallers. Fallers had poorer physical and psychosocial health, greater gait variability, and a higher risk of osteoporotic fractures. Novel risk prediction models integrating epidemiological, IMUs, FEM, VR, and EMR data are in development and being validated against gold standard clinical assessments, with cost-effectiveness evaluations of the economic feasibility of adopting these screening measures at scale. Conclusions: Leveraging comprehensive epidemiological, EMR, and health technology data, TARGET is well positioned to identify novel biomarkers and systemic interactions that may predict falls and fracture risk, with potential application to other age-related diseases with shared pathophysiology. In particular, TARGET’s focus on community-based screening using technologies that can be administered by nonclinical personnel has the potential to reduce substantial burden and costs within the health care sector.