Airbnb’s October Cancellation Policy Change Could Affect 40% Of Us Airbnb Bookings In Q4, Key Data Analysis Shows

SANTA ROSA BEACH, FLA. – Fresh analysis from Key Data, a short-term rental analytics company, shows that nearly 40% of US Airbnb cancellations last Q4 fell into the 7–30 day window where refund outcomes will change when Airbnb’s new cancellation policies take effect on 1 October.¹

Next month, Airbnb’s Strict policy is being retired, replaced by terms that guarantee guests at least 50% refunds for cancellations made 7–30 days before check-in, and in many cases full refunds, depending on the host’s chosen policy.

Key Data figures show:

• In Q4 2024, 16% of cancellations happened 7–14 days before check-in. Under Airbnb’s strict cancellation policy, previously used by many hosts, these guests previously received nothing; from October, they will receive 50%.
• A further 23% occurred 14–30 days before check-in. These guests previously received 50%, but will now be guaranteed half at minimum, and in many cases the full booking value.
• Combined, that is 39% of cancellations – almost four in ten – where a greater share of cancellation-related revenue will now be returned to guests.

Across the 12 months to August 2025, the pattern was similar: 13% of cancellations were 7–14 days out and 20% were 14–30 days out, or roughly one in three overall. These figures indicate that cancellations in the 7–30 day window are a consistent part of US booking activity throughout the year.

For travelers, the change offers greater protection and confidence to book earlier, knowing that cancellations weeks out will no longer wipe out the full booking value. For property managers, last year’s Q4 figures provide an indication of what could be in store this quarter, as refunds flow back to guests in situations where revenue previously remained with hosts.

Melanie Brown, VP Data Insights at Key Data, said: “Almost 40% of US Airbnb cancellations last Q4 happened in the 7–30 day window where refund terms are now changing. While this brings greater flexibility and protection for guests, it also means property managers could see different revenue outcomes compared to previous years. Under the new policies, guest behavior may also shift, with more travelers booking earlier, but also more cancellations closer to check-in, knowing more refunds are available. As property managers approach the first quarter under the new rules, they will need to monitor how refund volumes develop, assess the impact on revenues, and adjust quickly. Clear communication with guests, stronger data forecasting, and flexible pricing strategies will help property managers navigate these changes with confidence.”

1 The analysis is based on US Airbnb booking cancellation data tracked by Key Data, covering the 12 months to August 2025, with a specific focus on Q4 2024 (October – December 2024).

The article Airbnb’s October cancellation policy change could affect 40% of US Airbnb bookings in Q4, Key Data analysis shows first appeared in TravelDailyNews International.