Your Real Competitor? You Don’t Even Know Them (yet)

Disruption comes from blind spots, not rivals. The real threat to your business is the one you don’t see, writes ATN founder and CEO Edward Hertzman in a candid note to the fitness and wellness industry

A few months ago, I opened the ATN Innovation Summit with a simple, urgent message: your biggest threat isn’t in this room.

Let me provide some context: In the weeks leading up to the event, as I helped curate the agenda and speakers, I kept hearing the same hesitation:

“Why should I talk about what we’re doing?”
“Why should I give away our edge?”
“Why risk exposing our playbook?”

That mindset was jarring.

I’ve spent years in industries where people showed up to share, where collaboration wasn’t seen as risky but necessary. Events weren’t about chest-thumping; they were about building something bigger. Pre-competitive collaboration was the norm, not the exception. So when I stood on that stage, I knew I had to make two points, and make them count.

Edward Hertzman delivers opening remarks at the ATN Innovation Summit (credit: Flickman Media)

First: Stop Viewing Everyone as a Threat

That person sitting next to you? They may be your competitor on paper. But they could also be your next strategic partner, your investor, your exit strategy or your creative collaborator.

We talk a big game in this industry about community. But behind the scenes, it’s often scarcity, not abundance, that drives behavior.

We gatekeep, we hoard and we whisper about innovation instead of building it in the open. And that approach? It’s outdated, especially when you consider the regulatory landscape. Big change, whether it’s on the federal level, in reimbursement structures, policy, and standards, requires collective action, not lone wolves. If your competitive advantage is so fragile it collapses when you speak at a conference, you don’t have a competitive advantage. You have a secret you’re hoping no one uncovers.

I’ve heard the objections:  “Why invite other media to our event?”  “Why share access to relationships it took years to build?” It’s because I’m playing the long game.

This industry is bigger than any one player, brand or outlet. I want fitness and wellness in the mainstream press. I want founders, operators and innovators to become household names. And the only way that happens is if we open the door wide enough for others to walk through.

So if It’s Not the Guy Next to You … Who Is It?

The second point I made on stage was this: if the person across the aisle isn’t your real competition, then who is? The answer isn’t comfortable, but it’s urgent.

We’re not a niche industry anymore. Wellness has gone wide and deep. Post-pandemic, the category exploded. Hoka. On. Alo. Lululemon. Nike is opening gyms and selling weights. Running brands are launching run clubs that blur the lines between sport, fashion, and culture. Bathhouses are replacing bars. Fitness events are becoming music festivals. And yes, maybe running really is the new runway.

This is no longer just about “working out;” it’s about how people live. What they value. What they aspire to. Wellness isn’t a side hustle; it’s a new language for identity, connection, even status.

The question is: are we evolving fast enough to lead this cultural shift, or are we still clinging to outdated models that don’t scale?

You can’t out-price Amazon or out-spend Apple, but you can out-connect them. Consumers aren’t just looking for a good class or a decent deal. They want resonance, purpose and belonging. And right now, too many brands are stuck trying to optimize their operations instead of deepening their relationships. 

We say people need people, but we forget that applies to us, too. If we believe in community, we need to live it at every level.

Outside Disruption Is the Rule, Not the Exception

It’s easy to obsess over the studio across town or the discount gym that just opened. But real disruption? It comes from outside the walls entirely. Spotify didn’t come from the music industry. Airbnb didn’t come from hospitality. Uber wasn’t built inside a taxi commission. Innovation rarely originates from the dominant players. It comes from the outsiders who spot inefficiencies, move quickly and redraw the map while everyone else is still debating road signs.

As Andy Grove, the former CEO of Intel and author of “Only the Paranoid Survive,” warned: “Success breeds complacency. Complacency breeds failure. Only the paranoid survive.” 

If you had to design a business that could put you out of business, what would it look like? More importantly, what’s stopping you from building it? 

Let me be clear: I believe in backing the operators who get it right. EoS and Crunch are great examples.

These brands understand their customers. Their economics make sense. Their growth is disciplined but bold. And they’ve built real cultures, which is no easy feat at scale. But even these leaders aren’t immune. Markets shift, consumer behavior evolves. The moment you get too comfortable, you start bleeding relevance. The brands that survive aren’t just built on execution. They’re built on curiosity, paranoia and a willingness to kill their own darlings.

Watch the Capital — It’s Moving Fast

Private equity is pouring billions into fitness right now. But let’s not romanticize that. This is still a business, and the expectations are high. EOS, Crunch and others are expected to double or triple in value over the next 5 to 7 years.

That means speed, expansion, consolidation and aggressive growth, whether through new builds or acquisitions. The margins are in the math, not the mission. And while that may create short-term scale, it can also hollow out long-term connections unless leaders are intentional about what gets built alongside the revenue: culture, loyalty and brand affinity.

Take Amazon’s move into at-home diagnostics in India. Sample pickup from your doorstep. Results in six hours. Integrated right into your Amazon account. This isn’t a side project; it’s a new vertical.

Think about it: Amazon already knows your buying patterns, your nutrition preferences and your supplement habits. How far behind are personalized wellness bundles? Risk-based insurance offers? Real-time health recommendations?

Nike, Apple, Lululemon; they’re not watching us. They’re already here. With more capital, more tech, more customer data and broader reach.

Let’s not pretend geography or loyalty is going to save you.

The AI Wildcard & Tribe Building

There’s another shift reshaping the landscape that too many operators are ignoring: artificial intelligence. The next wave of disruption won’t be about who has the most equipment or the sleekest studio; it’ll be about who owns the customer relationship at scale. AI-driven platforms are already starting to deliver hyper-personalized health recommendations, content suggestions and engagement loops based on data most fitness brands don’t even track.

You think Amazon is dangerous now? Layer in predictive insights on top of its existing data: what protein you buy, how often you reorder resistance bands, whether you’re browsing sleep supplements at 2:00 am. That’s not just behavior tracking. That’s real-time consumer insight.

The companies that win won’t just “know their customer.” They’ll anticipate their needs before the customer even articulates them. And it’s not just about tech giants. AI gives small, nimble players the power to act big. To launch smarter offerings faster, test, adapt and repackage in ways that legacy operators simply aren’t built for.

Ask yourself: are you using AI to deepen your member relationship, or are you letting another platform step between you and your customer? Because the loyalty you think you’ve earned? It’s rented. And AI might be the agent collecting the fee.

Speaking of loyalty, Peloton got mocked for its tech and dismissed for its recalls. But what traditional manufacturers missed was that it was never about the bike; it was about the experience.  Add to that community, story, status and content. Peloton created a platform, not just a product. They didn’t just sell you equipment; they sold you an identity and a tribe, and millions bought in.

You already have people walking through your doors, visiting your website, engaging with your brand. But are you monetizing that relationship beyond the membership fee? If not, you’re leaving massive value on the table, including affiliate revenue, exclusive content, branded experiences and strategic partnerships. The path to growth isn’t always scale; sometimes it’s depth.

Don’t Chase Cool; Define It

Apple didn’t try to beat Sony at its own game. It reimagined what music could feel like. The iPod wasn’t just a better Walkman; it changed the category. Peloton didn’t just upgrade an indoor cycling bike. They built a movement.

If you’re lowering prices or copying the last thing that worked, you’re already behind.  You don’t chase cool; you create it by staying curious, connected and willing to go first.

After reading “Chasing Cool: Standing Out in Today’s Cluttered Marketplace,” Scott Bedbury, the former Nike and Starbucks marketing executive, remarked, “It’s possible to be both mainstream and edgy. You can be the Goliath, but you always have to think and behave like the David.”

This industry is gaining momentum. More investment, more cultural heat and more eyes on all of us. But attention is not the same as staying power, and disruption doesn’t come with a warning. You can’t coast, you can’t cling, and you can’t assume what got you here will carry you forward. So here’s your real choice: adapt, or become irrelevant. The new rule of business is simple: if it can be done, it will be … by someone else, if not you.

Your biggest threat isn’t the studio down the street. It’s outside the room quietly building the thing you’re too slow, too cautious or too comfortable to launch. That’s not a reason to panic. It’s a reason to move faster, smarter, together.

The post Your Real Competitor? You Don’t Even Know Them (Yet) appeared first on Athletech News.