Week 6 Fantasy Football: 6 Player Projections That Don't Make Sense

Hello Yahoo! I’m Derek Carty of EV Analytics and the creator of THE BLITZ projection system, which if you have Yahoo+, you’ll notice is available this year to help you manage your teams. Each Friday morning, I’ll be digging into three players projected to play above their usual level, and three players projected to play below their usual level. (I’ll also be doing an AMA in the Yahoo Fantasy Discord every Thursday at 3 PM ET, so be sure to stop by, say hi, and get your questions answered.)

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The players in last week’s write-up pretty much followed the script we laid out. Quinshon Judkins rushed for over 100 yards and Rachaad White had a monster game. Chase Brown flopped and Emari Demercado was very much not the lead back for Arizona. On to Week 6 …

Michael Mayer, Raiders

THE BLITZ Week 6 Projection: 5.3 targets, 4.2 receptions, 41 yards, 0.24 TD

Week 6 vs. ROS: TE12 vs. TE41

Mayer is healthy for the first time in weeks, so assuming Brock Bowers misses another week (which seems likely, since he hasn’t practiced yet), Mayer is set up for a potentially sneaky-big week. He comes with big-time pedigree, being drafted in the second round just two years ago, and the Raiders' coaching staff raved about him all offseason. And while it’s a small sample size, PFF has graded Mayer as the fifth-best receiving tight end in the NFL so far this year. Stepping into a bigger role and playing in a dome makes Mayer a very sneaky upside TE play this week.

Stefon Diggs, Patriots

THE BLITZ Week 6 Projection: 8.5 targets, 5.1 receptions, 65 yards, 0.41 TD

Week 6 vs. ROS: WR13 vs. WR21

After a slow start to the season, Diggs had a monster Week 5, which is right in line with the expectation that it would take him three or four weeks to ramp up post-injury. After a season-high 63% snap rate and 41% target share in Week 4, he that followed up with a 44% target share in Week 5. And the matchup in Week 6 couldn’t be better. He goes indoors to face the New Orleans Saints, who run the fastest-paced offense in the NFL by a large margin. Extra volume and extra efficiency against a bad team could lead to yet another big game for Diggs.

Luther Burden III, Bears

THE BLITZ Week 6 Projection: 5.1 targets, 2.9 receptions, 38 yards, 0.26 TD

Week 6 vs. YTD: 7.5 PPR points per game (with upside for much more) vs. 5.9

This one is more about ceiling than mean expectation, but the ceiling is BIG. To hear him talk about it, the slot role is a big priority in head coach Ben Johnson’s offenses (see: Amon-Ra St. Brown), but to this point in 2025, that role has been filled by the reliable but unspectacular Olamide Zaccheaus. Coming out of bye weeks, we often see rookies’ roles increase, and if that is the case for the far more dynamic Burden this week, you’ll be happy to have stashed him.

Particularly with DJ Moore becoming something of an afterthought this year, Burden’s ceiling is the No. 2 option in an ascending offense. It may not happen this week, but I’m projecting Burden to take on more of this role as the season goes on, and if we get that light bulb game where he jumps into a big role and everything clicks, your leaguemates will be emptying their FAB wallets to get him if he’s still sitting on the waiver wire.

Bijan Robinson, Falcons

THE BLITZ Week 6 Projection: 14.6 rush attempts, 4.5 receptions, 106 total yards, 0.72 total TD

Week 6 vs. ROS: RB6 vs. RB3

Bijan Robinson is by no means a fade this week, but you may want to expect less than usual for him. In a matchup against the Bills, Atlanta is both a 4.5-point underdog and in a volume-depressing spot against the league’s second-slowest-paced offense. Only the Miami Dolphins project to run fewer plays than the Falcons this week. Fewer plays overall and a smaller percentage of them being running plays is not ideal.

Sure, many consider Bijan “matchup-proof” because of his big role in the pass game, but when you run the actual math, you do wind up with a lower expectation in these spots, making the “matchup-proof” narrative a bit of a misnomer. Plus, coming off a bye, Darnell Mooney may be getting back to full health and could start to command more of the team’s targets.

Hunter Renfrow, Panthers

THE BLITZ Week 6 Projection: 0.3 targets, 0.2 receptions, 2 yards, 0.04 TD

Week 6 vs. YTD: 0.6 PPR points vs. 6.8 PPR points per game

Unless you’re in a deep league, Renfrow likely isn’t on your fantasy radar, but the reason he makes this list should be. And from a sports betting perspective, it will be very interesting to see if books open up lines for him this week.

It seems like an eternity ago now, but prior to Week 1, you may remember that Renfrow was cut by the Panthers. He was soon after re-signed when Jalen Coker got hurt and Carolina needed a slot man. Fast forward six weeks, and Coker looks primed to return, having logged back-to-back full practices.

So where does that leave Renfrow? Well, maybe getting cut again. Or maybe he’s done enough to stick on the roster in a limited role, at least until Coker is ready for a full complement of snaps. Either way, his value is gone, but Coker makes for a very interesting stash. He received a lot of hype in the offseason, and with Xavier Legette failing to establish himself, Coker could immediately become the No. 2 option for the Panthers. If you have the bench spot, it’s worth seeing how Coker looks over the next couple of weeks.

Quentin Johnston, Chargers

THE BLITZ Week 6 Projection: 7.6 targets, 4.9 receptions, 64 yards, 0.42 TD

Week 6 vs. ROS: WR23 vs. WR19

I mentioned in the Bijan write-up that the Falcons project for the second-fewest total plays run this week, but the Chargers are right behind them at No. 3. They face a Dolphins offense that is ninth-slowest in pace this season (and, while a bit noisier, a Dolphins defense that promotes the No. 1-slowest pace in opposing offenses), so the overall volume figures to be a lot lower here.

The loss of Omarion Hampton could lead to more passing than usual, but it could also lead to the team being more predictable and one-dimensional. QJ has been a very pleasant surprise and one of the top waiver wire grabs of the season, but he may be in for a bit of a down week this time around.