Patriots-saints Preview: How Can Pats Jump-start Scuffling Run Game?

Patriots-Saints preview: How can Pats jump-start scuffling run game? originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

FOXBORO — Garrett Bradbury thinks they’re close.

The Patriots center has seen the film. He understands the difference between success and failure in the running game is in the details, and if those can get ironed out, he believes they can be a more productive rushing offense.

“It’s funny,” he said, “there’s several plays where if we’re just a little better here, a little better there… First of all, a four-yard run is a good run in the NFL. But then there are eight-yard runs that can be 40.

“We’ve got to take ownership as linemen up front because we know we have the backs. If we give them the first and second level, they’ll take it the distance. It’s not pressing the panic button. It’s not reinventing the wheel with the plays we’re running. For the most part, we’re getting a hat on a hat. We just need to finish blocks a little bit better.”

“We’ve had some success,” Bradbury added. “We haven’t had a lot of negative runs, which is a really good thing. But we have a lot of dirty three-, four-, five-yard runs. Obviously, when you pause the clicker and say, ‘Oh, if you just do this a little bit better, it’s a home run’ — we have to take that to heart because it’s real. Close doesn’t win in this league. But it’s promising. You can build off it.”

Close as they may feel, to this point in the season, the Patriots feature one of the least efficient rushing attacks in the NFL.

They’re second-worst in the NFL in yards after contact per attempt. They’re fourth-worst in rushing success rate. They’re fifth-worst with 3.7 yards per rush. They’re sixth-worst in EPA per rush. They’re eighth-worst with just 12 runs of 10 yards or more.

Mike Vrabel knows they need more from that segment of their offense, agreeing with a reporter’s question earlier this week that pointed out just how much more impactful the Patriots passing game has been.

“I’m with you,” he said. “We understand that. It’s got to be better. It has to be better at the line of scrimmage, at the second level, and then continue to try to finish to break some of these. And we’ve had some good runs, just not enough of them. Not enough double-digit runs that help your average.

“I think that we’ve got to stop talking about being one guy away or one block away. I think that was a big theme from last week, and that’ll have to fix.”

According to Pro Football Focus, the Patriots have the No. 15 (Morgan Moses) and 24 (Will Campbell) run-blocking tackles. They have the No. 15 (Mike Onwenu) and No. 47 (Jared Wilson) run-blocking guards. Bradbury ranks 26th in that category.

“It’s just details,” Moses said when asked how they can improve their rushing attack. “Techniques, fundamentals, the small things some people take for granted. I’m not saying that’s us, but just honing in those details and getting to the second level and blocking the ‘backers. It takes, when you look at the efficient run teams, it takes all 11 (players).

“It takes receivers to block. It takes the quarterback to operate to get us in the right call off the line to block. It takes the running backs to run to the open hole. I’m not saying we’re not doing those things. We’ve just got to clean up some details and we’ll be fine.”

According to NextGen Stats, the Patriots rank in the middle of the NFL in terms of average yards gained before contact (1.48, 14th). That’s an indication that the line is able to get its backs started, but then their backs aren’t able to do much thereafter.

“Just trust ourselves,” Rhamondre Stevenson said when asked how the Patriots can improve. “Just us and the o-line, getting on the same page, same track. Things like that. I don’t think we’re far away, though.”

Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels seemingly has tried a variety of different calls in order to spark his running game.

They’ve run the traditional downhill concepts McDaniels has used in New England in the past, using double-teams at the line and pulling guards to clear space in the tranches. He’s also deployed zone runs — with bootlegs as options off of those — that he didn’t use as often in previous stints with the Patriots. There have been other schemed-up runs as well, with the Patriots using jet-sweeps and designed quarterback runs to try to hit defenses where they’re softest.

Should they be dialing back some of the variety in their running game in order to focus on a handful of more dependable concepts? Bradbury explained that the diversity in their run game hasn’t been an issue.

“Are we a jack of all trades, master of none? No, I don’t think so. I think it’s a good mix,” Bradbury said. “I think Coach McDaniels does a great job of giving us some base runs that we’re going to carry every week, but then we have some gadget runs. I think you saw in the Carolina game we had a lot of success with some of those gadget plays. You have to find a balance. You can’t be a one-trick pony in this league.”

Still, consistent answers seem elusive.

“I don’t think there’s any shortcut to that,” McDaniels said. “I know it’s not for lack of effort on anybody’s part. I think you just got to keep working at it. That sometimes is a little bit of a process that comes behind the passing game at times. There’s time on task, time in pads, things like that that we’re continuing to try to work on. Patience is important in that regard, not abandoning things and looking for one answer here or there.

“We’ve got to stick with our our details, our techniques and fundamentals, continue to get better at them and then finish. I think we’ve seen some really good examples of us finishing blocks. If you get a few more of those on a certain play here or there, it changes the outcome of the perception of what you’re doing in the running game, so just stay patient with it. Keep grinding away. Keep working at it, keep coaching the details, techniques and fundamentals, and let the guys continue to come on in that area of offense.”

How defenses have played the Patriots helps explain some of the inefficiencies they’ve experienced in the passing game. No team in the league sees fewer “light boxes,” according to Sumer Sports, meaning defenses are consistently adding bodies near the line of scrimmage. 

That may be due in part to opponents being willing to challenge the New England receiving corps to beat them 1-on-1 on the outside. The Patriots are near the top of the league in seeing single-high safety coverages, which means fewer defenders to protect against the pass, but more to take care of the running game. 

Despite that strategy working to bottle up Patriots runners, quarterback Drake Maye has feasted on those loaded boxes and lighter secondaries through the air. He’s second in the NFL in EPA against single-high safety coverages.

Maye’s success against those looks could force opponents to therefore go with more two-high safety looks, which would lighten the box… and could yield more success for New England’s running game.

Maye aside, and defensive structures aside, Bradbury believes it’s just a matter of time before they notch some big-hitters on the ground. 

“We’re going to pop some,” he said. “We’re going to have some explosive runs, and we’re going to celebrate like hell because there’s no better feeling than a 50-yard run.”

Let’s get to our matchups to watch in New Orleans on Sunday:

Matchup that will determine the outcome

Drake Maye vs. Brandon Staley

In his time as defensive coordinator of the Rams and then head coach of the Chargers, Staley was credited with helping devise the two-high safety looks that have swept across the NFL in recent seasons. In New Orleans, though, he’s used more single-high structures, dropping a safety down even if they begin in a two-high shell.

Will Staley continue to go that route given Maye’s success against single-high looks? This could be the week where a defensive coordinator looks at Maye’s ability to attack 1-on-1s on the outside and tries to put a stop to it by committing more resources to the defensive backfield.

Staley also has frequently turned to blitz calls this season in his attempt to help what is the second-worst pass-rush in football in terms of pressure rate (20.2 percent). The Saints blitz on 34.7 percent of opponent dropbacks (ninth in the NFL), but Maye has diced up blitzes this season, accumulating the third-best EPA of any quarterback in those situations.

Between Maye’s effectiveness against blitz-happy schemes and single-high looks, if Staley continues to do what he’s done this season, it could be a long day for the Saints.

Matchup that will make your Sunday

Patriots’ defensive tackles vs. Saints’ offensive line

The Saints have been banged up on their offensive line and possess one of the worst pass-blocking units in the NFL. They’re 27th this season in PFF’s pass-blocking efficiency metric. Out of 190 qualifying linemen, they have one of the worst pass-blockers in the NFL in guard Torricelli Simpkins III (189th), but they could be getting starter Cesar Ruiz back in the lineup. 

Either way, Patriots defensive tackles Christian Barmore and Milton Williams have been a hard-to-handle duo for weeks. They rank third and sixth, respectively, among defensive tackles in terms of pressures. If they can get to quarterback Spencer Rattler while he’s trying to push the ball down the field, they could force some mistakes. The Saints are just 27th in the NFL in EPA when throwing beyond 20 yards down the field this season. 

Matchup that will surprise you

Patriots’ defense vs. Saints’ speed

The Saints aren’t thought to be anyone’s idea of a well-oiled machine offensively. They’re 27th in EPA per play and 28th in points per game. But they do have the kind of speed that will make the Patriots think twice. 

Rashid Shaheed hit almost 22 miles per hour on an 87-yard touchdown catch-and-run in a win over the Giants last week. Chris Olave ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash prior to becoming a first-round pick, and he’s a dependable option for Rattler, seeing the third-most third-down targets (17) in the NFL this season.

Rattler is 25th in the NFL in completion percentage on deep targets of 20 yards or more beyond the line of scrimmage. But all it takes is one deep attempt to connect and it could change the game. The Patriots are 22nd in the NFL against deep throws, allowing 47.0 yards per game, 14.7 yards per deep pass and +0.83 EPA per deep attempt.

Matchup that could ruin your Sunday

Patriots’ run game vs. Saints’ run defense

You don’t have to squint all that hard to see where the Saints succeed on the defensive side. They’re ninth in the NFL in EPA allowed per rush, which has helped contribute to an EPA per play allowed figure (0.019) that ranks them 14th in the NFL. 

Despite their inability to get after quarterbacks, they’re sound enough up front to limit opposing rushing attacks. Given the difficulty the Patriots have experienced this season running the football (details above), this could be the most challenging of Sunday’s matchup at the Superdome for Vrabel’s club. 

Prediction: Patriots 23, Saints 17