March Madness Upset Picks: Ncaa Tournament First-round Surprises

The history books will rightfully remember last year's March Madness as a chalk, with four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four and three No. 2 seeds in the Elite Eight. But as the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament first round gets set to begin on Thursday, March 19, it's perhaps worth noting what happened to the bracket on the first two days of college basketball's biggest event in 2025.

Five double-digit seeds pulled off upsets in the first round, including four from non-power conferences. Only one (No. 10 seed Arkansas) advanced to the Sweet 16, which significantly reduced the brackets busted and eventually led to just the second Final Four featuring all No. 1 seeds since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

The 2026 NCAA Tournament field is also seen as top-heavy by college basketball experts, but there are several intriguing opportunities for a potential Cinderella to emerge this year. Here's a look at five March Madness first-round games that could produce an upset this week:

MARCH MADNESS: Predicting every Men's NCAA tournament game using AI

No. 11 VCU over No. 6 North Carolina

The school that went from the original First Four all the way to the Final Four 15 years ago is a potential Cinderella again in the South region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket after a run to the Atlantic-10 Conference tournament championship. VCU has lost just once over the past two months and it slots ahead of UNC since Feb. 1 in the Torvik Rankings, which are based on offensive and defensive efficiency and weight recent performances more heavily than other predictive metrics. North Carolina, meanwhile, will enter the NCAA Tournament with back-to-back losses to Duke and Clemson and continues to be without freshman star Caleb Wilson. No game during Thursday's March Madness first-round action has a smaller spread than VCU vs. UNC (-2.5).

No. 11 South Florida over No. 6 Louisville

Only one team in this year's NCAA Tournament has a longer current winning streak than USF's 11-game streak entering its East region first-round matchup and six of the Bulls' past seven wins have been by at least 15 points. Guard Wes Enis has been held under 19 points just once in the past five weeks. Louisville also plays the same up tempo style as USF and the Cardinals are just 4-4 over their past eight games. They won't have star freshman guard Mikel Brown Jr. available again due to injury.

No. 11 Texas over No. 6 BYU

This West region first-round matchup will pit two teams with bad defenses that played much better earlier in the season. Now that Texas escaped with a buzzer-beater win over North Carolina State in the First Four, it gets a juicy upset chance against A.J. Dybantsa and BYU. The Cougars had a 7-9 record over the final two months of Big 12 play and uses one of the thinnest benches in the field. Though the Longhorns limped to the finish line with five losses in their final six games before Tuesday's NCAA Tournament triumph, they do have wins over Alabama and Vanderbilt on their ledger this season.

No. 12 Akron over No. 5 Texas Tech

Though Miami (Ohio) garnered most of the headlines out of the MAC with its undefeated run through the regular season, conference tournament champion Akron had the better offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and could take advantage of its draw in the Midwest region. Though Akron lost by 18 points to the only other power conference team on its schedule (Purdue), Texas Tech hasn't looked the same since star J.T. Toppin suffered a season-ending injury. The Red Raiders are 6-5 over their past 11 games, with three defeats in a row entering the NCAA Tournament.

No. 10 Missouri over No. 7 Miami

Missouri is a trendy pick in this West region first-round matchup because the game will take place in nearby St. Louis. The Tigers also had a strong surge through SEC play in February and early March, beating Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M to secure an NCAA Tournament at large berth. Missouri, however, has lost three in a row, including an SEC tournament quarterfinal setback to Kentucky. But the Tigers already beat Kentucky on the road earlier this season and the crowd should be on their side this week.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness predictions: Men's NCAA bracket first-round upset picks