Inside The Evaluation: Breaking Down Caleb Williams’ 2025 Season

Caleb Williams’ 2025 season sparked plenty of debate, especially across social media. Under the tutelage of first-year head coach and offensive mastermind Ben Johnson, Williams and the Chicago Bears improved their regular season win total by six games, won the NFC North, and stunned the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Wild Card round by scoring 25 fourth-quarter points to send their biggest rivals home.

Below: Relive the historic comeback in a special episode of 1920 Football Drive.

Yet depending on who you ask, Williams either showed flashes of elite quarterback play or struggled with consistency in his second season as Chicago’s starting quarterback. To some observers, even those flashes of brilliance were simply moments of unsustainable luck.

Personally, I tend to see it the way the ancient Roman philosopher Seneca did:

“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”

Traditional box score statistics tell part of the story, but they rarely capture how a quarterback actually played. Completion percentage, yards, and touchdowns are outcomes. They don’t always explain the process that created them.

To get a clearer picture, I built a grading and evaluation system designed to measure quarterback performance beyond the stat sheet. Throughout the 2025 season I shared those weekly breakdowns here on Windy City Gridiron, tracking both custom metrics I created, such as the True Passer Rating (TPR), and modern day charted metrics like On-Target Throwing Percentage (On-Tar %), Average Depth of Target (ADOT), and more.

How the Evaluation Process Works

Evaluating quarterback play is often reduced to a handful of box score statistics: passing yards, touchdowns, interceptions, and traditional passer rating. While those numbers provide useful context, they rarely capture the full picture of how a quarterback actually performed on the field.

I had always had a passing interest in quarterback grading, and when Caleb Williams was drafted first overall by the Chicago Bears in 2024 draft I decided to build a grading system and metric-based framework designed to look deeper than the stat sheet. This system combines film evaluation with accuracy tracking and advanced efficiency metrics in order to produce a more complete view of quarterback performance.

At the core of this evaluation is a film grading system applied to every game of the season. Each game is divided into two halves, with performance graded on a scale ranging generally but not limited to –5 to +5 per half. Those two halves are added to find the full game score. The majority of these starts generally falling between -8 and +8 total game score, based off 160+ graded games of data from quarterbacks around the league, not just including Caleb Williams. A grading designation is then assigned to the game based off of total score, ranging from “Awful” (-8 or lower) to “Elite” (+8 or higher).

Positive grades are awarded for plays that demonstrate strong quarterbacking traits such as:

• High-level throw placement
• Anticipation and timing
• Creation under pressure
• Explosive or high-difficulty completions

Negative grades are applied to plays that hurt the offense, including:

• Turnover-worthy decisions
• Missed open receivers
• Poor pocket awareness leading to avoidable sacks
• Inaccurate throws that stall drives

By evaluating performance in this way, the grading system attempts to measure process and execution, rather than relying solely on outcomes like yards or touchdowns.

The grading system is then paired with my custom made quarterback metric, the True Passer Rating (TPR) and other various charted metrics to paint a wider picture of quarterback play.

All together, these metrics allow us to analyze Williams’ season from multiple perspectives: decision-making, efficiency, and accuracy.

Adding Context: Comparing Williams to His Peers

Evaluating a quarterback season in isolation can make it difficult to understand what the results actually mean. A grading score or accuracy percentage only becomes meaningful when it can be compared against other quarterbacks operating under similar conditions.

To provide that context, Caleb Williams’ performance will be compared against six other quarterbacks whose 2025 seasons were graded using the same system. (And trust me, I wish I had the time to do this league-wide, but this doesn’t pay the bills…yet.) Each of those quarterbacks were evaluated using the exact same methodology, including film grading, True Passer Rating (TPR), and metric tracking.

This allows Williams’ performance to be placed within a broader peer group, helping answer questions such as:

• How did his game grades compare to other starting quarterbacks?
• Was his accuracy above or below league norms?
• Did his efficiency metrics place him closer to the top tier or the middle of the pack?

By applying the same evaluation process across multiple quarterbacks, the goal is to create a clearer picture of where Williams’ 2025 season truly stands relative to his peers, rather than judging the season in a vacuum.

Throughout the series, these comparisons will be referenced when relevant to highlight both strengths and areas where improvement is still needed.

The follow quarterbacks had every game of the regular season (and post-season where applicable) reviewed and will be referenced in comparison to Williams through out the series:

• Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
• Drake Maye, New England Patriots
• J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
• Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
• Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
• Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers.

What This Series Will Cover

Part I: Game Grading (Coming March 21st)
An overall breakdown of Caleb Williams’ performance using the film grading system relative to his peers.

Part II: TPR (Coming March 25th)
A deeper dive into my custom True Passer Rating (TPR) metric and how Williams performed through that lens. Including a league wide look.

Part III: On-Target Percentage (Coming March 28th)
Accuracy analysis examining throw placement and consistency throughout the season. One of the most important metrics, in my opinion, to judge progression as a quarterback.

Part IV: 2024 → 2025 Growth (Coming April 1st)
Comparing Williams’ development year-to-year to see where improvement occurred and where regression showed up.

Part V: 2025 In Conclusion (Coming April 4th)
The final evaluation of Williams’ season and what it suggests about his future trajectory.

Caleb Williams’ 2025 season was record-setting in many ways, and within this grading system he finished as the third-highest graded quarterback among the seven quarterbacks evaluated this year.

Over the next five parts, we will take a deeper look at how that season unfolded. By combining film grading, advanced efficiency metrics, and accuracy tracking, this series aims to provide the clearest evaluation possible of Williams’ 2025 performance and what it may tell us about his trajectory heading into year three.

Gary Baugher Jr. is a rookie contributor to WCG, bringing football insight backed by over 16 years of experience in organized football and more than 30 years as a passionate fan of the game. You can follow him on Twitter at @iamcogs.