Breaking Down Where Eagles Stand In Nfc After 13 Weeks

Breaking down where Eagles stand in NFC after 13 weeks originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

If you hadn’t watched any of the games and just saw that the Eagles were 8-4 after Week 13, you’d probably feel pretty good about it.

They’re still the overwhelming favorites to win the NFC East and still have a chance at the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Of course, you have seen the games. And you’ve watched the last two weeks as the Eagles blew a 21-point lead in a loss to the hated Cowboys and then got bullied at home by the Chicago Bears.

But after all that, it’s a good time to take a look at where the Eagles stand at the beginning of December.

With five games left, the Eagles’ remaining strength of schedule ranks 29th in the NFL. Their last five opponents have a combined winning perfecting of just .400:

Week 14: at Chargers (8-4)
Week 15: vs. Raiders (2-10)
Week 16: at Commanders (3-9)
Week 17: at Bills (8-4)
Week 18: vs. Commanders (3-9)

None of that matters if the Eagles can’t figure out their own issues. But they are still mathematically very likely to make the playoffs.

NFC East race

The Cowboys are coming on strong and it’s possible for them to catch the Eagles. If you’re wondering, the Cowboys’ remaining strength of schedule is actually equal to the Eagles. The Cowboys’ remaining opponents — Lions, Vikings, Chargers, Commanders, Giants — have a combined winning percentage of .393.

But the Cowboys do have ground to make up.

1. Eagles: 8-4 (+21)
2. Cowboys: 6-5-1 (+9)
3. Commanders: 3-9 (-61)
4. Giants: 2-11 (-88)

Playoff probability

Here’s what the NFC playoff picture would look like if the season ended now and playoff probability from NFL.com:

1. Bears: 9-3 (1st in NFC North) — 75% playoff probability
2. Rams: 9-3 (1st in NFC West) — 96% playoff probability
3. Eagles: 8-4 (1st in NFC East) — 94% playoff probability
4. Buccaneers: 7-5 (1st in NFC South) — 85% playoff probability
5. Seahawks: 9-3 (2nd in NFC West) — 93% playoff probability
6. Packers: 8-3-1 (2nd in NFC North) — 89% playoff probability
7. 49ers: 9-4 (3rd in NFC West) — 92% playoff probability
— 
8. Lions: 7-5 (3rd in NFC North) — 43% playoff probability
9. Cowboys: 6-5-1 (2nd NFC East) — 17% playoff probability 
10. Panthers: 7-6 (2nd in NFC South) — 17% playoff probability 
11. Falcons: 4-8 (3rd NFC South) — <1% playoff probability 
12. Vikings: 4-8 (4th NFC North) — <1% playoff probability
14. Commanders: 3-9 (3rd NFC East) — <1% playoff probability

Already eliminated:

13. Cardinals: 3-9 (4th NFC West)
15. Saints: 2-10 (4th NFC South)
16. Giants: 2-10 (4th NFC East) 

Can they still get the No. 1 seed?

The Eagles are still alive in the hunt for that all-important No. 1 seed in the NFC that comes with home-field advantage and a first-round bye. But their chances keep getting slimmer.

The Eagles have just an 8% chance of landing that No. 1 seed, according to The Athletic’s model. That’s a smaller percentage chance than five other teams in the NFC: Rams (38%), Seahawks (21%), Packers (12%), Bears (10%) and 49ers (10%).

While it might look good that the Eagles have an easy remaining schedule, the problem is there are five teams with a better record than them in the conference and all five of them play each other … so someone has to win.

Rams remaining schedule: @ARZ, vs. DET, @SEA, @ATL, vs. ARZ

Seahawks remaining schedule: @ATL, vs. IND, vs. LAR, @CAR, @SFO

Packers remaining schedule: vs. CHI, @DEN, @CHI, vs. BAL, @MIN

Bears remaining schedule: @GB, vs. CLE, vs. GB, @SFO, vs. DET

49ers remaining schedule: vs. TEN, @IND, vs. CHI, vs. SEA

Looking at the odds

The four teams with the shortest odds to win Super Bowl LX are from the NFC and the Eagles are tied for third among them, via FanDuel.

Odds to win the Super Bowl :

Rams: +460
Seahawks: +850
Packers: +900
Eagles: +900
Patriots: +1100
Bills: +1100
Broncos: +1200
Colts: +1500
Ravens: +1600
Chiefs: +1700

Odds to come out of NFC:

Rams: +245
Seahawks: +470
Packers: +500
Eagles: +500
Bears: +1120
49ers: +1200
Lions: +1200
Buccaneers: +1400
Cowboys: +2200
Panthers: +7000

Odds to win the NFC East:

Eagles: -800
Cowboys: +650
Commanders: +30000