3 Players Making A Difference Since The All-star Break

Throughout the season, we have used FTN’s new NBA StatsHub to help separate surface-level production from true impact. Those advanced metrics have provided the necessary context to effectively identify emerging stars, analyze trades, give insight into awards races, and provide analysis on the league’s top playoff contenders.

Now, as the regular season enters its final stretch, the focus shifts to identifying which stars are peaking at the right time. Using NBA StatsHub, let’s take a look at a few players who are playing at a high level since the All-Star break.

Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets

In the coming days, Kevin Durant will surpass Michael Jordan for the fifth place on the NBA’s all-time scoring list. Yet, the 37-year-old Durant, who suffered a torn Achilles tendon in the middle of his prime, isn’t just stat-padding his Hall of Fame resume.

Since the All-Star break, he’s averaging 25.9 points on only 17.5 field goal attempts per game. He’s the only player in the league averaging 25+ points while shooting 50%-plus from the field, 40%-plus from 3-point territory and 90%-plus from the free throw line.

He leads the NBA by a substantial margin in Points Over Expectation (+5.5) in that span, with Luka Dončić (+4.1) and Anthony Edwards (+3.8) a distant second and third, respectively.

Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets

Earlier this season, we examined the league’s most underrated scorers using Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation and came away wondering if Kon Knueppel could be the NBA’s next superstar.

Since that point, he’s averaged 19.7 points per game while shooting 49.3% from the floor, including 44.0% from 3-point territory. Since the All-Star break, he ranks sixth in the entire NBA in Points Over Expectation. He’s been Charlotte’s most valuable player during that stretch, with an incredulous +22.4 Net Rating.

Knueppel was +500 in the Rookie of the Year race when we wrote Feb. 18 that he has been the NBA’s most impactful first-year player. One month later, he’s -200 to win the award, looking like a clear and obvious favorite if he can stay healthy during the final month of the regular season.

James Harden, Cleveland Cavaliers

Immediately following the Cavaliers trade for James Harden, ESPN gave Cleveland a B grade for the deal. CBS Sports gave Cleveland a C. Bleacher Report was the most critical, giving the Cavaliers a D+.

We gave Cleveland an A+ for the trade, arguing that Harden is still a high-impact player.

Since the trade, the Cavaliers own the second-best offensive rating in the NBA, despite Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen both missing substantial time due to injury.

A big reason for their success has been the play of Harden, who ranks 7th in the league in Points Over Expectation since the All-Star break. The team has a +4.7 Net Rating with him on the floor, benefitting from his playmaking ability, efficient scoring and veteran leadership.

The Cavaliers have emerged as the primary threat to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference. If healthy, they have their best chance to return to the NBA Finals since LeBron James left for the Lakers nearly a decade ago.

The Takeaway

Kevin Durant, Kon Knueppel and James Harden haven’t simply been filling the stat sheet on a nightly basis because they take a lot of shots or operate in a high-usage role for their respective team. These players are offering measurable, sustainable benefits to their club at the most important time of the season.