10 Fantasy Football Stats To Know As You Head Into Your 2025 Drafts

By John Paulsen, 4for4

Khalil Shakir’s efficiency points to a potential breakout

Shakir quietly delivered a solid season in 2024, finishing WR35 overall and WR42 on a per-game basis. Dig a little deeper, though, and there are signs of a potential breakout. [1] He ranked 18th in yards per route run and an elite fifth in yards after catch per reception, showing he's making the most of his opportunities in a pass-heavy Buffalo offense. Matt Harmon has even floated the idea that Shakir’s career could follow a trajectory similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown’s. Playing with Josh Allen doesn’t hurt, either.

If Justin Fields plays a full season, he will very likely finish as a fantasy QB1

Somewhat limited as a passer, Fields still projects to be a solid fantasy quarterback provided he can hold onto the starting job in New York. In six starts for the Steelers, Fields was the fantasy QB6 at the time that Russell Wilson was installed as the rest-of-season starter. In those six starts, Fields threw five touchdowns and rushed for 289 yards and another five scores. That rushing upside makes him a dangerous fantasy asset. [2] As the Bears' starter from 2022 to 2023 (28 starts), Fields racked up the ninth-most fantasy points with the seventh-highest per-game average, so he's done it before.

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Like most of the pass-catchers in Indianapolis, Jonathan Taylor will benefit with Daniel Jones at QB

While he hasn’t been much of a receiving threat the last two seasons (just 1.5 catches per game), Taylor showed pass-catching upside early in his career (76 receptions across his first two seasons), and his receiving role should grow after Daniel Jones was named starter. Last season, [3] Jones targeted running backs on 13.5% of his throws compared to just 7.8% for Anthony Richardson Sr. over the past two seasons.

Brenton Strange profiles as a breakout TE candidate

A by-product of Evan Engram’s departure is that Strange is primed to see a big jump in snaps as he enters his third season. [4] In the eight games that Engram missed, Strange averaged 3.6 catches for 34 yards and 0.25 touchdowns on 4.9 targets per game. The resulting 6.5 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game equate to solid TE2-type numbers. He was tied for 17th in yards per route run among tight ends, has 4.70 speed, a 75th-percentile speed score and an 86th-percentile burst score per Player Profiler.

The Jags drafted Travis Hunter, but it’s unlikely that he’ll be a full-time player on offense. Christian Kirk (47 targets) and Gabe Davis (42) are also gone, so there are plenty of targets up for grabs in Jacksonville.

Looking for another breakout candidate at tight end? Meet Theo Johnson

Johnson is poised for a breakout in his second NFL season, thanks to a combination of late-season momentum and elite athleticism. From Weeks 8-13 of the 2024 season, Johnson averaged 7.3 half-PPR points per game, making him the TE16 in that stretch. Standing at 6'6" and weighing 259 pounds, [5] he boasts a 4.57-second 40-yard dash (93rd percentile), a 98th percentile Speed Score, a 96th percentile Burst Score, a 78th percentile Agility Score and a 98th percentile Catch Radius, per Player Profiler. These metrics underscore his rare athleticism for the tight end position. The second season is typically when a tight end breaks out, and Johnson fits the criteria this season.

Jordan Love is a draft day value as the QB16 off the board

Call me a homer, but Love is a value as the QB16 off the board. He was the fantasy QB16 last year, and quarterback is deep, so I get the ADP, but he dealt with multiple injuries and [6] still was QB13 on a per-game basis after finishing as the fantasy QB5 in 2023.

Sure, the Packers were more run-heavy with Josh Jacobs in the offense, but the Packers drafted two receivers in the first three rounds, and that signals an emphasis on improving the passing game in 2025. The run/pass splits were probably impacted by Love’s injuries. Considering he was already the QB13 on a per-game basis last season, if he can improve from there and perhaps get back to his top-five production, he would be a massive value at his current ADP.

Rome Odunze could have a Jameson Williams-like breakout in Year 2

The Bears’ offense is trending up with the arrival of new HC Ben Johnson, who spent the last several years as the primary playcaller for the Detroit Lions. Keenan Allen (121 targets) is gone, and the Bears drafted Luther Burden III in the second round as a replacement.

Odunze caught 54 passes on 96 targets for 734 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie. While his 73rd-ranked yards per route run (among 88 qualified receivers) suggests he has room to grow in overall efficiency, [7] he was elite in contested catch rate (2nd) and solid after the catch (29th in YAC per reception). With Allen gone, Odunze is primed to make a Jameson Williams-type leap in his second season and could perhaps even surpass DJ Moore to become the team’s primary target. Harmon says that his charting of Odunze “is still pointing us in an extremely positive direction.” With a growing role in what should be a much more productive offense, Odunze is a strong candidate to outproduce his low-end WR3 ADP.

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Emeka Egbuka’s situation reminds me of Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s rookie year, except it seems Chris Godwin won't be ready to go in Week 1

Egbuka enters the league with a polished profile and a clear runway to early-season snaps if Godwin misses any time, which it looks like he will. Egbuka posted a strong senior season at Ohio State — 81 catches for 1,011 yards and eight touchdowns — and finished 27th out of 151 qualified receivers in yards per route run, a strong indicator that his game will translate to the pros. The historical comps are encouraging. [8] Among the 11 first-round receivers drafted in the second half of the round since 2010 who played at least 14 games, the group averaged 58.3-779-5.0. That jumps to 62-879-4.9 if they started at least 10 games, so if Egbuka earns a substantial role early, WR3/WR4 production is in play.

Harmon describes Egbuka as “ready-made to be a rock-solid, slot-leaning option” with “plenty of production-based upside.” He may not be flashy, but Egbuka’s well-rounded skill set and pro-ready route running make him an intriguing 10th-round pick with a high floor and sneaky upside.

Age and environment signal lesser production for Alvin Kamara

Kamara keeps defying the odds, finishing as the fantasy RB9 in 2024 despite turning 30 this summer and operating in an inconsistent Saints offense. His rushing efficiency has clearly declined — he ranked 40th in yards after contact per attempt, 28th in broken tackles per attempt and posted the 19th-best PFF rushing grade among qualified backs. But he remains serviceable before contact (16th), and more importantly, he's still one of the league’s premier receiving backs.

[9] Over the last two seasons, Kamara leads all running backs in receptions (143) and ranks second in receiving yards (1,009), and his 2nd-place finish in yards per route run in 2024 highlights just how dangerous he still is as a pass-catcher.

The problem? The Saints’ quarterback room is the worst in the league, and scoring opportunities may be few and far between. Kamara’s age and declining rushing efficiency are real red flags, but his elite passing-game role keeps him firmly in the RB2 mix in PPR and half-PPR formats. Just temper expectations in standard scoring leagues, or if the offense completely stalls.

Coming off a disappointing rookie season, there is reason for optimism surrounding Marvin Harrison Jr. 

Expectations were sky high for Harrison heading into his rookie campaign, but he finished as the WR32 in total points and WR43 on a per-game basis. While the box score didn’t reflect the fantasy breakout many predicted, Harmon believes Harrison “had a good rookie season,” citing route nuance and technical polish that didn’t always translate due to schematic and quarterback limitations. Harmon added that, for Harrison to take the next step, the Cardinals need to “mix up his deployment,” while Harrison himself needs to improve “in tight coverage and working back to the quarterback.”

The advanced data backs up that assessment. [10] Among 88 qualified receivers, Harrison ranked 66th in contested catch rate, 81st in YAC per reception and 44th in yards per route run. He caught 62 of 114 targets for 885 yards and 8 touchdowns — solid numbers, but underwhelming given his pedigree and opportunity. With a full offseason under his belt, a year of NFL experience and the hope of improved quarterback play, Harrison should be positioned for a Year 2 leap. He remains a high-end talent who profiles as the team’s long-term WR1, but his 2025 fantasy value hinges on whether Arizona can create a more dynamic passing attack to unlock his ceiling.

This article originally appeared on 4for4.com