The Great Gerrymander War: California Fires Back At Texas Power Play

California’s Texas-thwarting gerrymander has swiftly transformed from fantasy to reality.

Democrats in the House and the state Legislature are coalescing around a plan to draw a half-dozen Republican incumbents into oblivion — and persuade California voters to approve the new congressional maps before next year’s midterms. Party leaders are closely tracking the dual-track developments in which lawmakers in Texas and California are moving, in partisan parallel, to shore up their respective party’s House majorities. California Republicans are casting about for a way to avoid extinction.

It all points to a high-stakes, big-dollar brawl thrusting California to the center of the political universe.

“Legally, we can do it,” said Xavier Becerra, a Democratic gubernatorial candidate and former Biden Cabinet secretary who is working with a voting rights institute that has briefed lawmakers. “Politically, we must do it.”

It could result in as many as five new blue seats and Democrats holding all but four of California’s 52 congressional districts, according to a slide presented to members of Congress and viewed by POLITICO. That analysis tracks with the presentation to Democrats in Sacramento, which envisioned forcing out GOP incumbents including Reps. David Valadao, Kevin Kiley and Darrell Issa.

The redistricting sprint has accelerated over the last week. On Thursday, Gov. Gavin Newsom confirmed he intended to call a special election, likely in November. Over the weekend, as Texas Democrats sought to forestall a vote by fleeing the state, California House delegation leaders gave state lawmakers their most extensive briefing to date, including internal polling that found the gambit starting with a slender lead.

On Monday, members of the California delegation discussed their plan for mounting a redistricting campaign in the deep-blue state, according to five people familiar with the situation.

“Trump wants to change the rules so he can continue to use the full power of the federal government to punish California with zero congressional oversight,” Rep. Zoe Lofgren, who briefed state and federal colleagues, said in a statement. “If these GOP mid-decade redistricting efforts do come to pass, our congressional delegation stands ready to work with our state legislative partners to respond. We will fight back.”

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who has been in close touch with Newsom, also recently met with Democratic members of the California delegation to discuss redrawing the maps, and lawmakers emerged largely supportive of the effort. California House incumbents — even those who would be drawn into more competitive districts — are presenting a united front and downplaying any reservations about shifting lines complicating reelection.

In a mirror-image inversion of the situation in Texas, members of California’s shrunken Republican delegation are trying to stave off defeat. Kiley has introduced a bill to bar mid-decade redistricting, and targeted Rep. Ken Calvert asked his local registrar to analyze the cost of a special election. California's last Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, is weighing how to respond to a tactic he vehemently opposes.

“I know the last thing Riverside County residents want is to eliminate the Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission and replace it with insider Sacramento politicians gerrymandering district lines behind closed doors,” Calvert said in a statement.

When Newsom initially floated a California gerrymander to neutralize Texas, the reaction last month was a mix of enthusiasm and deep skepticism about the legal and political hurdles, given California’s use of an independent redistricting commission.

But as it became clear that Texas Republicans were unlikely to back down, Newsom pressed the issue, making California the tip of the spear for a counteroffensive embraced by Democrats at all levels of the party.

Those dynamics make it likely the Democratic-dominated Legislature votes this month to put a new map on the ballot. While some expressed misgivings Sunday about a rushed process — to secure a November election, lawmakers will need to act quickly — several statehouse Democrats predicted they would muster the necessary two-thirds votes in each house.

“It’s not a fight any of us want to be in, but we’re in it, so we’re going to fight,” said Assemblymember Buffy Wicks, a Democrat from Oakland.

“Nothing,” she added, “unites the California Democratic caucus quite like Donald Trump.”

But getting Sacramento Democrats on board is one thing. Persuading California voters will be entirely different — particularly because they would be asked to return line-drawing power to politicians, letting the Legislature craft new lines until the commission takes over again in 2031 after the next census.

“Voters want to weigh in on redistricting because they don’t trust politicians,” said Chris Lehman, a political consultant who has worked on redistricting ballot initiatives.

A survey conducted by Newsom pollster David Binder found that 52 percent of California voters would approve of state lawmakers redrawing its congressional district lines if Texas Republicans pulled off a similar gambit.

The measure becomes more popular if the fight becomes more overtly partisan; 60 percent of voters back “rejecting Trump’s power grab.” Roughly eight in 10 Democrats and six in 10 independents are in favor of the effort, according to a person who was briefed on the poll’s findings.

The messages tested in the poll underscore how California Democrats will portray this as a fight they have no choice but to take on. The proposed ballot measure would be contingent on Texas’ new districts being enacted.

“The polling shows that Californians overwhelmingly reject Trump’s blatant power grab in Texas and want to fight back. The basic components of the program we are considering has strong support," said Los Angeles-area Assemblymember Rick Chavez Zbur, another Democrat.

A successful ballot campaign would still require a titanic political effort. Assuming the Legislature acts, Newsom and allies will have just a few months to raise tens of millions of dollars and educate voters on a sudden, off-year election. Republican foes could be motivated to throw down. With little else on the ballot, that could yield an enormously expensive showdown.

“That’ll be the big question mark,” said Brandon Castillo, a political consultant who specializes in ballot initiatives. “Does that national money pour in, on both sides?”