The Big Decision That Could Shape Aoc’s Future

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is at a crossroads — again.

Five months ago, she chose to play the inside game with her fellow House Democrats, running for her party’s top post on the high-profile Oversight Committee. She came up short to a more senior lawmaker, Rep. Gerry Connolly of Virginia, and left the committee entirely.

Now she has a second chance. Connolly unexpectedly announced Monday he will soon step aside for health reasons, leaving her with another critical choice — one made even more momentous by how much has changed inside the Democratic Party since she last chose to try and move up the House ranks.

Faced with the stresses of President Donald Trump’s second term, Democratic voters are yearning for younger and more assertive leadership. Many see exactly what they are looking for in Ocasio-Cortez, 35, who has traveled the country in recent months, packing rally after rally with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and fueling speculation about a potential White House run.

In other words, the stage afforded as ranking member of the House Oversight Committee is suddenly looking a whole lot smaller, and Ocasio-Cortez is remaining publicly and privately noncommittal as speculation swirls about Connolly’s successor.

Even colleagues who enthusiastically backed her Oversight bid last year have been left guessing about her final decision.

“The group of us who were her whip team have asked for her plans, and she's still sorting out what she wants to do,” said Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.). “I think, to the person, we've all said, ‘Just let us know what you want to do, and we'll work on your behalf.’”

That’s a common sentiment inside the House Democratic Caucus, where many members see her as the perfect fit for the Oversight job — a skill requiring media savvy, quick thinking and a political killer instinct.

But others off Capitol Hill think she’s better off seeking a bigger stage and continuing to build a national platform to reshape the future of the Democratic Party. Instead of chasing a mid-level House job, some suggest she’s better off preparing a run for Senate or even the presidency in 2028.

“I think the work being done in Oversight by the minority party is way less important than the work being done in communities and across America painting a different path, a different vision for the Democratic Party,” said Corbin Trent, a former Ocasio-Cortez aide.

“I think we really are in the midst of defining what the next political era could be and defining what the Democratic Party should be,” added an ally of Ocasio-Cortez granted anonymity to speak candidly. “And I think she has a much bigger role to play in that conversation than she does in the kind of nitty-gritty of gaining power within the House.”

There are signs that the congresswoman is torn herself. Even after losing to Connolly, she has continued to position herself as a team player after being seen for years as the leader of the Squad — the hard-left cadre that was often defined in opposition to the elected Democratic leadership in the House. She has paid her dues to the party campaign arm and worked to calm previous jitters about her support for primary challenges to Democratic incumbents.

She has garnered praise from fellow House Democrats for staying on message at her rallies with Sanders, and some said that Ocasio-Cortez, one of the party’s top communicators, could help them meet the base’s demand for more vigorous, visible opposition to Trump in a prime leadership role.

There’s also nothing preventing her from seeking the Oversight post and then seeking higher office down the road. If Democrats retake the House majority next year, Ocasio-Cortez would be in line to wield broad subpoena power and lead the charge in investigating the Trump administration. It could be a huge platform for an ambitious Democrat, albeit one with huge responsibilities.

Plenty of her colleagues are hoping she will take on the challenge, and they believe she would be the immediate frontrunner if she does.

“Folks are asking us to use every tool that we can to hold this administration accountable,” said Rep. Emily Randall (D-Wash.), an Oversight member who said she’d support Ocasio-Cortez if she ran.

“I think my constituents and the American people want us to show the fight against the harm being done, and Alex has been one of the strongest voices on that,” seconded Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.). “When you're in an existential fight, and you're on a team, you want to have your best players in all the key roles.”

A House Democratic aide, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said that the caucus had made a “mistake” in electing Connolly to lead the panel last year and now had “an opportunity to right that wrong and put in one of the most powerful voices in a high-profile position.”

Ocasio-Cortez said in an interview Monday that “right now there’s no vacancy” and that she wanted to be respectful of Connolly, who has not yet formally stepped down from the panel.

While she might be the prohibitive favorite if she runs, there are obstacles. For one, she would need to rejoin the panel after securing a junior post on the more coveted Energy and Commerce Committee, which would force senior leaders to waive some caucus rules and potentially do some reshuffling. Most Democrats believe that would be a formality if she ultimately decides to run.

There’s also a candidate in the race already. Connolly named Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) to head up the committee in his absence, and Lynch said Monday he intends to run for the permanent post and had Connolly’s endorsement to do so. Lynch gave a presentation on behalf of the committee in a closed-door Democratic Caucus meeting Tuesday morning on the impact of Republicans’ pending domestic policy bill.

“It’s a great committee,” Lynch, 70, said in an interview. “There are a lot of younger members on the committee. It’s probably the youngest committee and the committee with the least seniority and time on the Hill. I think having a little bit of balance will help.”

But Lynch has twice sought Democrats’ top Oversight slot and, dogged by his past positioning as a moderate, fallen well short. He opposed the Affordable Care Act, though he’s since embraced the legislation, and he opposed gay marriage as a state legislator, though he’s since become supportive of LGBTQ+ rights.

If Ocasio-Cortez doesn’t run, it could open the floodgates for a number of other young, ambitious Democrats on the panel. Reps. Jasmine Crockett of Texas is expected to run if Ocasio-Cortez doesn’t, and Reps. Ro Khanna of California, Maxwell Frost of Florida and Robert Garcia of California are also potential candidates.