Shutdown Politics Ripple Into Bellwether Governors Races

With early voting already underway and a month to go before Election Day, the national brawl over government funding has the potential to shake up Virginia's otherwise sleepy race for governor.

"Trump is threatening DOGE 2.0," Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger posted on social media, referring to the Elon Musk-led effort to slash government spending earlier this year, and accused her opponent, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, of “again defending it.”

Earle-Sears wrote in a post on X that "Abigail Spanberger is right there" with Democrats who voted against the GOP's government funding bills. "It's all their fault."

Virginia is becoming an electoral proxy in the federal shutdown fight. As one of only two statewide races across the country this year, the state presents a test case for electoral fallout from the government shutdown. Thousands of federal jobs have already been eliminated in Virginia by the Department of Government Efficiency. President Donald Trump has threatened to eliminate more federal jobs if Democrats remain recalcitrant in the government funding fight. And DOGE buyout benefits keeping many federal workers afloat expired right as the government closed this week.

Spanberger, who has made the economic impact of government downsizing central to her campaign, has maintained a lead, though polls show the race tightening in recent weeks. Now, the Earle-Sears campaign is testing lines of attack that link her opponent to the shutdown.

“Given that [Spanberger’s] been so vocal about how crucial it is to keep federal jobs, it’s deplorable to me that they'd use people’s livelihoods for political points,” said Peyton Vogel, Earle-Sears’ press secretary. Spanberger, in a statement, criticized her rival for “refusing to stand up for Virginia’s workforce and economy.”

“Democrats own this shutdown,” said Virginia-based GOP strategist Jimmy Keady. Still, he sees the shutdown and some other issues forging a comeback path for the lieutenant governor.

But a national GOP operative following the Virginia race who was granted anonymity to speak candidly was less optimistic.

“I think when you look at the message coming out of the Spanberger campaign, it's been one focused on affordability and the economy,” the operative said. “I don't believe that the Winsome campaign has really found their message yet.”

Since the shutdown took effect Wednesday morning, Earle-Sears has continued to attack Spanberger on culture-war issues, like the rights of trans kids in schools, and hammer her for voting against an immigration law championed by Republicans. The House eventually passed the bill once Spanberger left Congress and Trump signed it into law.

Democrats believe the shutdown is “a continuation of the impact of Trump policies,” said Dan Helmer, campaign chair for Virginia’s House Democratic Caucus. “I don't think we have to do anything to put it in front of the campaign: It is foremost in Virginia's minds.”

For now, Democrats appear to be winning the argument on the shutdown.

National polling so far suggests voters are more likely to blame Republicans, but it’s not a “slam dunk” for Democrats and the situation is “very fluid in terms of blame," Democratic pollster Adam Carlson said.

He noted the issue is helpful for Spanberger, given the large number of federal workers in Virginia, but said it will resonate less in other states. “I tend to think this is a very big thing inside the Beltway,” he added.

In New Jersey, the only other state with a statewide election this fall, there’s little sense that the shutdown itself will shift the governor’s race much. Still, it provides Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill, who leads most polls but faces a more competitive race than Spanberger, another opportunity to go after rival Jack Ciattarelli for being in lockstep with Trump.

Sherrill on Wednesday criticized Ciattarelli — a former state lawmaker — after the Trump administration said it is planning to withhold billions of dollars from a project to build a new train tunnel under the Hudson River connecting New York and New Jersey as retaliation for the shutdown.

“The Trump administration is now attacking the Gateway Tunnel,” Sherrill wrote on X, promising to sue the administration to finish the project should she become governor. “[Ciattarelli] said there’s not a single issue where he disagrees with Trump, and he promised to never take them to court.”

Republicans are hopeful Ciattarelli can replicate Trump's inroads from last year in New Jersey — where he improved his 2020 margin and lost by just 6 points. But the president’s approval rating is consistently low in polls and Democrats bet tying Ciattarelli to Trump will drag him down, particularly for voters prioritizing the economy and tariffs. Fallout from the shutdown gives them another chance to do so.

Chris Russell, a Ciattarelli strategist, said voters are more focused on taxes and rising utility bills, which Republicans have lambasted Sherrill and incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy for, than the shutdown. He also pointed out that Sherrill voted against the GOP's plan to keep the government open, along with nearly every other House Democrat.

“Make no mistake, Mikie Sherrill owns this shutdown and is responsible for any negative impacts on Gateway tunnel project and other NJ priorities,” Russell said in a statement.