New Jersey’s Gop Candidate For Governor Makes Big Bet On Flipping The Legislature

Jack Ciattarelli thinks he has the tailwinds to do something that Republican Gov. Chris Christie could not: flip a house of the New Jersey Legislature to Republican control.

That might be easier said than done.

Ciattarelli, who came three points shy of defeating Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021, has made the argument that he will help Republicans gain control of the General Assembly for the first time since the early 2000s a central part of his campaign as he again vies for the governorship against Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill in November.

“I flipped eight seats in the state Legislature with the wind in our face,” Ciattarelli said of his 2021 run during a recent interview. “And despite those challenges, it was the most successful night in 34 years for the Republican Party. In 2023, without me at the top of the ballot, we gave all those seats right back. But I’m telling you, this time around, we’ve got some wind at our back.”

All 80 seats in the Assembly are up this year, and Democrats have a 52-28 majority. Ciattarelli argues he can pick up 13 seats — the Ciattarelli campaign declined to name which ones but suggested that they are targeting as many as 15 — to flip the chamber, a bet that he has shared frequently while out on the trail. But even if he pulls it off, Ciattarelli is certain to preside over a divided government, as the Democratic-controlled state Senate is not on the ballot until 2027.

While Republicans are bullish that Ciattarelli can flip the governorship — pointing to the inroads President Donald Trump made in the state last year and Republicans’ voter registration gains since the 2021 campaign — he still faces an uphill climb in the blue-leaning state. And even as he gets some help from outside reinforcements, that level of investment is not as high on the legislative level, where races often get less attention and Democrats typically outspend Republicans.

“Is there a chance? Yes. And that chance is largely driven by changes in turnout patterns by Democrats,” said Dan Cassino, executive director of the Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll. “If we see turnout that looks like 2024 turnout in 2025, there are seats that are in play that the Democrats did not think were in play.”

But Cassino still thinks the odds are against a flip. “We’d have to see a historic collapse of Democratic turnout, which we saw last year. But that seems to me much more about factors about 2024 than a general trend of Democratic turnout collapsing.”

As national groups that deal with legislative races prioritize their targets this year, both the Democratic and Republican organizations are more likely to focus on Virginia, where Democrats have a slim 51-49 advantage in the House of Delegates, than New Jersey.

National Republicans have indicated that they would be satisfied making inroads here and are not necessarily betting on a chamber flip.

In a May memo, the Republican State Leadership Committee President Edith Jorge-Tuñón noted that New Jersey “continues to lean Democrat.” She wrote that the committee views 2025 “as a pivotal opportunity to increase representation and compete in critical districts for future success,” and the “goal in New Jersey will be to hold our ground while also showing tangible proof that Republican ideas can resonate even in traditionally challenging areas.”

The RSLC has invested $2 million into New Jersey and Virginia for get-out-the-vote efforts this year, though it’s unclear how much of that went into each state. And Democrats say that they are not taking their majority for granted — especially after some unexpected GOP flips in recent years. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has put five figures into New Jersey.

Christie won two terms, including a reelection landslide in 2013, but he never had the coattails to flip either chamber of the Legislature. Instead, he managed to accomplish much of his agenda by splintering Democrats and working with powerful Democratic elected officials and bosses. Christie’s hopes of flipping the Legislature were also hampered by legislative district maps drawn by Democrats — though the Republican 2021 legislative gains came under a Democratic-drawn map. Now, Ciattarelli is working with a map drawn through a bipartisan agreement.

When asked at a campaign event how Ciattarelli plans to enact his policies if Republicans do not claim the Assembly, he again insisted that he has “wind at my back.”

“I think we need balance,” he said. “Our tax policy needs better balance. Our regulatory policies need better balance. And so I think a Republican majority in the state Assembly would be a healthy thing for New Jersey after 25 years of Democratic control.”

In an interview with New Jersey 101.5, Ciattarelli said that his preexisting relationships with state legislators — which he argued Sherrill “doesn’t have” — will help him should he become governor.

“She doesn't have relationships, and I’m really surprised that she didn’t pick a lieutenant governor from the state Legislature,” Ciattarelli said. “You’ve got to have relationships. I do. Relationships make all the difference. It doesn’t mean I’m going to compromise in a way that’s bad for New Jersey. But don’t forget, our governor’s the most powerful in the nation. … So if the Legislature doesn’t want to cooperate, I’ve got an awful lot of leverage.”

The DLCC has indicated six districts it views as battlegrounds this year: LD-3, LD-4 and LD-8 in South Jersey, along with LD-11 in Monmouth County, LD-16 in Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex and Somerset Counties and LD-38 in Bergen County. Democrats currently hold both Assembly seats in all of these districts, with the exception of LD-8, which is represented by Republican Assemblymember Michael Torrissi along with Democratic Assemblymember Andrea Katz. Democrats flipped LD-3 back in 2023 after Republicans swept the district in 2021, including the shocking defeat of state Senate President Steve Sweeney.

Although Trump made gains in the state last year compared with his 2020 performance, it’s not guaranteed those results will translate into momentum for the down-ballot Republicans, whose races are often more removed from the national environment. Still, the president’s showing in other Democratic-held districts could give some Republicans faith in challenging seats: In the 19th in Middlesex County, held by longtime Democratic Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin and Deputy Speaker Yvonne Lopez, Trump narrowly lost, and in the 36th in Bergen and Passaic Counties, represented by Democratic Assemblymembers Clinton Calabrese and Gary Schaer, he won by close to 5 points after he lost by double-digits there four years prior.

“I think there’s a chance,” said Carlos Cruz, a consultant for the Republican Assembly candidates in Districts 3 and 4 who also works for a super PAC backing Ciattarelli. “Jack did exceptionally well in 2021, and there were seats that were not on the radar that ended up coming our way based on his very narrow defeat four years ago.”

And while flipping the Assembly wouldn’t give Ciattarelli a completely clear path to achieve his most ambitious legislative goals like lowering income taxes, consolidating tax brackets and overhauling the school funding formula, it would put him in a much stronger bargaining position, Cruz said.

“The Assembly sets the table for the state budget after the governor introduces his priorities in the budget address. You start there. And there has to be more compromise,” he said. “I think the Senate is by nature more deal-driven. So you’re talking about an entirely different, at least, budgeting dynamic. It’s kind of the elephant in the room.”

Republican Jessica Ford, who is running with former Neptune City Mayor Andrew Wardell in LD-11 against Democratic Assemblymembers Margie Donlon and Luanne Peterpaul, who flipped the seat in 2023, said that Ciattarelli and his running mate Jim Gannon “have helped resonate and push our message.”

“When you have someone like that at the top of the ticket pushing your content, tagging you on social media, it only gives Andrew and I more credibility that we should be taken seriously,” she said.

Democrats, meanwhile, argue that having Sherrill leading the ticket gives them a boost in these local races. Iris Delgado, executive director of the state Democratic Assembly Campaign Committee, said that Sherrill’s campaign has been helpful in coordinating with down-ballot candidates, and that her affordability messaging resonates with what the legislative candidates are running on.

While Democrats currently occupy the Assembly seats in most competitive districts, they’re playing not entirely on the defense. In the Republican-held District 21, which covers Middlesex, Morris, Somerset and Union Counties — the type of wealthy suburban district Democrats have made inroads in and came surprisingly close in two years ago — Democrat Andrew Macurdy, a former prosecutor, had raised almost $200,000 as of the end of June to take on moderate Republican incumbent Assemblymembers Nancy Munoz and Michele Matsikoudis.

“[They] do skip out on a lot of voters they think are difficult,” Macurdy said in an interview, citing their abstentions on some bills related to gun control and abortion. “We can’t really afford to have people who are going to try to fly under the radar in office.”

Democrats have also made noise about competing in the Republican-held 25th District in Morris and Passaic Counties, home to state Senate Minority Leader Anthony Bucco. But their candidates there, at least as of the end of June, had raised less than $9,000. Delgado said that the committee will determine if it will engage further with these races based on polling and vote-by-mail trends.