National Poll: Majority Of Democrats Back California’s Effort To Counter Texas Despite Claims Of Hating Gerrymandering

Democratic voters loathe partisan redistricting, but support California doing it to counter Texas, according to a new national poll on Gavin Newsom’s high-stakes gerrymander.

The POLITICO-UC Berkeley Citrin Center survey conducted by TrueDot found that 70 percent of Democrats believe gerrymandering is “never acceptable.” But a strong majority of Democratic voters across the country think California Democrats should “fight back” and create more favorable House districts if Texas Republicans do, embracing the exact idea likely to go before California voters.

“The real divide isn't about whether it’s fair,” said Jon Cohen, founder and CEO of TrueDot. “The real divide is whether to fight fire with fire or hold the line on principle.”

The results presage a deeply partisan referendum on political power in the Trump era as the redistricting wars unfold. Democratic officials from former President Barack Obama to the party’s congressional leaders have united behind California’s bid to draw a map that imperils a half-dozen House GOP incumbents in next year’s midterm elections, saying they must respond in kind after President Donald Trump pushed Texas to boost Republicans and maintain the House majority.

As Texas Republicans move this week to craft new districts, California’s Democratic-dominated Legislature is expected to vote today to put a map that would help Democrats flip House seats on a Nov. 4 special election ballot for voter approval.

Newsom has advanced the plan in concert with national Democrats and party luminaries, calling it a bulwark against Trump seizing more power.

Obama lauded California’s gambit as a “responsible approach” during a Tuesday fundraiser at Martha’s Vineyard. On Wednesday, Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin joined Newsom, New Jersey Sen. Corey Booker and Democratic Texas Rep. Nicole Collier on a call rallying support for California’s ballot measure.

“This isn't just about California,” Martin said, calling the initiative “a national moment for Democrats to show up for all voters.”

Majorities of Democratic and Republican voters consider gerrymandering generally unacceptable — but Democrats and those who voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris were five times as likely as their Republican counterparts to say California Democrats should match Texas Republicans.

That breakdown aligns with Newsom and allies’ campaign strategy as they try to energize their base and persuade left-leaning voters in the state to suspend the work of a popular independent commission through the 2030 cycle. The campaign is already presenting the initiative as disempowered Democrats’ best chance to retake the House and thwart Trump’s agenda.

Voters often start out against changes like California is proposing “in the abstract,” said Citrin Center co-director David Broockman. But they are persuadable, he said, particularly when elected officials they support present changes as necessary to counter political opponents.

“As they hear more from their side about why those changes are necessary or urgent, and they hear from political leaders they trust, you see that start to change,” Broockman said. “I have no doubt that in the months to come voters in California will hear more and more messages about why this is important for the Democratic Party and we will see support increase from there.”

Other polls suggest it will not be easy. A prior POLITICO-Citrin-Possibility Lab poll found California voters resoundingly did not want to see redistricting power shifted from the state’s independent commission to lawmakers. (The proposed ballot initiative would not do away with the commission’s work entirely but would replace the lines it crafted until 2031.)

An internal July survey from Newsom pollster David Binder found the concept drawing slender majority support. A later Binder survey publicized this week showed support had risen among voters who were told that the measure would be temporary and only triggered by Texas acting.

This study was fielded Aug. 19-20 among an online sample of 1,177 registered voters nationwide by TrueDot.ai, an AI-accelerated research platform. Respondents were sourced from Verasight's nationally representative voter verified panel. No data was inferred or modeled. Results were weighted by age, gender, race, education, and geography using the 2024 Current Population Study November Supplement and past vote preference based on 2024 presidential vote counts by Census region. The modeled margin-of-error for the full sample is +- 2.9%.