Elise Stefanik May Run For New York Governor. That's Bad News For Mike Lawler.

NEW YORK — Upstate Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik is eyeing the New York State Executive Mansion — a move that stands to deepen her rift with fellow New York GOPer, Rep. Mike Lawler.

The MAGA diehard is considering running for governor next year, POLITICO reported earlier today, just weeks after her hopes of becoming U.N. ambassador were dashed over fears leaving her North Country seat vacant would upend the slim Republican House majority. In the process, she lost her spot as GOP conference chair, the No. 4 leadership post in the House, and now holds a leadership position with lower rank.

In addition to her gubernatorial ambitions is her beef with Lawler, another potential challenger to Gov. Kathy Hochul. Friction between Lawler and Stefanik has stemmed from the since-scuttled special election to replace her in the deep-red House district after President Donald Trump nominated her for the U.N. post.

Lawler facilitated a phone call between one of the candidates in the race, Liz Joy, and House Speaker Mike Johnson, according to three people with direct knowledge of the effort. The previously unreported move angered Stefanik’s team and was seen as Lawler’s unwarranted meddling in the North Country race.

Joy, who has run for Congress a few times, was considered one of the finalists to replace Stefanik. National Republicans did not consider Joy a viable candidate for the seat.

“To my knowledge, the top contenders all had the opportunity to personally speak with Speaker Johnson,” Joy told Playbook. “I was one of those top contenders. I’ve always been a supporter of the speaker and I remain an avid supporter of Speaker Johnson and the America First agenda.”

Now Stefanik’s gubernatorial curiosity is clouding up the Lawler limelight. And each day it appears more and more that he wants to make sure running for reelection — instead of governor — remains a viable option.

Stefanik sounded like someone vying for governor Tuesday night, as she delivered a 15-minute speech at the NYGOP gala eviscerating the state of New York under Hochul, “the worst governor in America.”

“In Kathy Hochul's New York, small businesses are closing, they are fleeing the state,” she said, bemoaning crime in the state, families leaving and antisemitism, which she said is “engulfing New York streets and our college campuses across the state.”

“Our Empire State, once a beacon of opportunity, innovation and strength, is fading fast before our very eyes,” Stefanik added. “It feels like someone is asking, 'Will the last one out of New York please turn the lights off?' And I'm here to say not on our watch. It is time to save New York.”

And she’s got friends in high places. “Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is GREAT!!!” President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social this morning after she appeared on CNBC.

New York Republicans over the last decade have watched Stefanik’s evolution from a young Harvard graduate and Paul Ryan-allied lawmaker to MAGA acolyte. An even more dramatic transformation could be necessary to win a general election in deep-blue New York.

Some Republican consultants believe she can pull it off.

“She’d be a formidable candidate. She’s probably one of America’s most formidable politicians,” GOP political strategist Dave Catalfamo said. “She’s a hell of a fundraiser. If she sets her mind to it, I wouldn’t doubt it.”

A Republican hasn’t won a statewide election since 2002, when then-Gov. George Pataki won a third term. Former Rep. Lee Zeldin, now Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency administrator, lost to Hochul in 2022 by a relatively narrow margin of 6 points.

Trump’s friend, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, is eyeing a bid for governor next year, creating a potential primary showdown between two MAGA magnets.

Asked about Stefanik, he said the state’s Republican party “is fortunate to have many exciting and capable candidates for statewide office.”

“New Yorkers are yearning for new leadership and are rejecting dangerous Democrat policies and leadership that make our communities less safe and less affordable,” he said in the statement. “Every day I work to make Nassau County a better place to live, and raise a family. I am focused on my re-election which will affirm my efforts in making Nassau county the safest place to live in America, and my record of cutting taxes which is unprecedented.”

Meanwhile Lawler, who launched a website and recorded videos bashing Hochul this fall, is increasingly focusing his attention back to his congressional district.

He has ridiculed Democrats running for his seat on X and in Playbook over the last month. He also applauded his ally’s attempt to dethrone one of his potential Democratic challengers from the MTA board on Tuesday — another sign he might be gearing up for reelection.

His status as one of the NRCC’s Patriots, a list of incumbents the Republican congressional campaign arm views as vulnerable in the 2026 midterms, has already ensured he has the funds to keep his seat. Over the past few months, he’s received over $250,000 from three different Republican House leadership PACs focused on keeping the GOP House majority.

“Elise Stefanik has been a powerful leader in the House, where she maintains a strong and important role in leading our conference,” Lawler said in a statement. “We both agree that Kathy Hochul is the worst Governor in America, bar none. In 2026, New Yorkers have a chance to elect a strong, competent leader to move the state in a better direction. In the coming months the process will play out to ensure that Republicans have the strongest candidate possible.”

GOP officials acknowledge Stefanik will have a steep hill to climb. Despite an underwater approval rating, Hochul is an aggressive fundraiser with incumbent advantage. A successful statewide Republican candidate would have to target a growing pool of independent voters, with whom Hochul has struggled to win over.

“The independents are the only way we can win and if they're not up for grabs, there’s no conversation,” Gerard Kassar, the chair of the influential Conservative Party, said.

Hochul reacted to Stefanik’s interest in her seat at a news conference in the city earlier today, saying, “No matter who the GOP nominee is next year that I'll be running against, it'll be an extreme MAGA Republican and I look forward to that fight.”

Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.

A version of this story first appeared in New York Playbook PM. Subscribe here.