2028 Us Election Odds: An Early Look At Odds For Next Us President

THE 2028 US Presidential Election may be three years away, but it is already on the radar of top UK betting sites and punters.

Interest in political betting has boomed over the last decade, with shock results leading to big wins for punters and making political betting markets more popular than ever. In this guide to the US Presidential Election 2028 odds, we explore the major candidates who could shape the race, highlight some of our best picks, and more. 

Where to bet on US presidential election

Who might run for president in the 2028 US election?

The 2028 US election is still three years away, but some early candidates have already emerged for the role of US President. JD Vance is currently positioned as the natural successor to Donald Trump, but will the MAGA machine continue to be effective for a third election victory?

The Democrats will no doubt be going back to the drawing board, desperately looking for the next Clinton or Obama to galvanise the party.

In this guide, we have selected the most likely candidates to be President according to top UK bookmakers. 

Who the bookies are currently listing as favourites

A field of candidates is starting to emerge for the next US election, and now is the perfect time to start weighing up your betting options. Many of the candidates are still long-shots, and their odds will no doubt shorten as the election gets closer. Here’s our breakdown of the top six candidates and our thoughts on their chances. 

JD Vance (Republican)

Vice President JD Vance is currently the bookies’ favourite to be the next President of the United States, with Betfred pricing him at 11/4. Vance is, right now, the obvious candidate to take over from Trump. The MAGA Republicans are fully behind the former Ohio Senator, and he would be able to continue much in the same vein as Trump.

Of course, a lot can change in the next few years, and as many former Vice Presidents have found, sometimes being so closely aligned to a President, especially if it goes wrong for them, can be damaging. 

Regardless of whether he wins or not, it seems highly unlikely that anyone other than Vance would be nominated as the Republican candidate in 2028. 

Bet on JD Vance to be the next US president at 11/4 with Betfred

Donald Trump Sr (Republican)

That said, there is still the outside possibility that Donald Trump could attempt to run for a third term. Under normal circumstances, this possibility would not even be considered, but it’s fair to say that Trump’s two Presidential runs so far have been anything but normal. 888 Sport currently have him as the second favourite at 7/1.

While it would no doubt cause uproar in the States if he were to run for a third term, he does still have a lot of support in the Republican base and could win again if he were to change the rules. 

Bet on Trump to run for a third term and win the elections at 7/1 with 888 Sport

Gavin Newsom (Democrat)

If one thing was made clear at the last election, it’s that the Democrats desperately need a facelift. The Republican MAGA rebranding in 2016 has dominated American politics for nearly a decade, and the Democrats have not been able to muster much of a response. While Joe Biden did win an election, much of this was down to his Pennsylvania roots, some goodwill from the Obama years, and Trump’s mismanagement of COVID.

There is a strong argument to make that, had it not been for the latter, Trump may have won again in 2020. Gavin Newsom is currently best placed to be the man challenging the Republicans in 2028, with SBK pricing him at 7/1. Whether he is the man to take on the MAGA Machine remains to be seen, but right now, the bookies feel like he is the strongest option. 

Bet on Gavin Newsom to win it for the Democrats at 7/1 with SBK

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Democrat)

If the Democrats do want to go for a more radical approach, then Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) may be the strongest option. She is seen by many as the clear successor to Bernie Sanders and is well-positioned to be a hero on the American left.

She brings a youthful energy to politics, which could be exactly what the Democrats need to tackle the conservative Republican party and its increasingly right-leaning values.

She is still largely seen as an outsider, though, with bet365 pricing her at 11/1. This is a fair reflection of her current position, with the voting American public having shown a disposition towards progressive candidates in recent years. 

Tip AOC to get elected in the 2028 elections at 11/1 with bet365

Pete Buttigieg (Democrat)

Former transportation secretary emerged as a surprise candidate in the 2020 Democratic Party candidate race, and large portions of the party also backed him to be Kamala Harris’s running mate in 2024. He is one of the more progressive Democrats and has strong support within minority communities.

He has stuttered in recent months when it comes to the conflict in Gaza, which is something that is no doubt going to remain a key talking point over the next few years. Pete Buttigieg is currently an outsider at 20/1 with Betfred. 

Pick Pete Buttigieg for the next US elections at 20/1 with Betfred

Josh Shapiro (Democrat)

Another man who was heavily touted to be Kamala Harris’s running mate in 2024 was the Governor of Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro. Shapiro has long been touted as a potential candidate for the Democrats. He has exceptional approval ratings in Pennsylvania, but the question is, can this translate to a national level?

For the most part, he has kept a low profile, but there is every chance he will start to build momentum in the next few years. He is certainly one to watch, and we think he offers excellent value at 25/1 with Betfred. 

Go for Josh Shapiro for 2028 at 25/1 with Betfred

Other available 2028 US election betting markets

The election might still be some time away, but that doesn’t stop top UK bookies from offering odds on other betting markets. If you are looking for some value away from the election winner market, then the following markets are widely available and can present some excellent value.

Democrat candidate

Before we even get to the presidency itself, we need to know the people who are going to be running for president. Almost all top bookmakers who offer 2028 US election odds will also offer odds on who will be the Democratic candidate for the election. Given how wide open this race is likely to be, you will find some excellent value in these markets. 

As we’ve already mentioned, the Democrats are likely to go back to the drawing board after a poor performance in 2024, and they will be well aware of how important it is to get this candidacy right. 

Go for Democrats to win the presidency at 10/11 with BetMGM

Republican candidate

With Donald Trump set to complete his second term in office, the Republican Party will also need to elect a new candidate ahead of the 2028 election.

While this one is a little more clear-cut, with Vice President JD Vance being the obvious choice, a lot can change in three years, and there is every chance the party attempts to move away from the MAGA machine back to a more moderate candidate.

With Vance being such a strong favourite here, there could be value in keeping an eye on other people making moves within the party. 

Tip Republicans to keep the presidency at evens with BetMGM

Winning party

This one is a straight-out bet on which party you believe will win the election. Right now, for example, you might think that the Democrats are going to come back in 2028 and defeat the Republican nominee. This would be the best market to bet on in that instance, as it does not matter who is running, just the party that wins. 

Donald Trump’s presidency exit date

While it is extremely uncommon for a President not to see out their full term (the last was Richard Nixon, who resigned because of the Watergate Scandal in 1974), the bookies still offer odds on the possibility.

There are two bet types here, one of them is a simple yes/no on whether President Trump will see out his presidency, while the other allows you to bet on an exit date. For example, you might find odds on ‘Before 2028’, which would mean Trump needs to leave office before January 1st, 2028. 

The main political issues that are likely to shape the 2028 US election

We are currently three years out from the next US election, and it’s fair to say, a lot is going to change in that time. The following are some of the biggest issues that are likely to impact the next US election result. 

Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine

Geopolitics are extremely volatile right now, and the two conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East are likely to continue to shape the international landscape over the next few years.

Much has already been said about Trump’s interactions with Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelensky and Benjamin Netanyahu, and the way he deals with these problems is no doubt going to shape the way the US public views the Republican Party at the next election. 

The rise of AI

One of the most significant talking points over the next few years is going to be the rise of AI. Even the most optimistic of predictions project that a lot of people will lose jobs, with many creative and digital roles already beginning to feel redundant. There is also a lot of concern about graduate jobs and people being able to enter careers.

This is brewing away quietly in the background, but there is every chance it will have a huge impact on the 2028 election. As a bettor, you should keep your eyes peeled for how each party looks set to deal with this and who is planning ahead already. 

Approval ratings

Monitoring approval ratings is an excellent way to gauge public sentiment. It is worth noting that Trump will almost definitely not be running for President in 2028. However, if JD Vance does run, then Trump’s approval ratings could provide an insight into how the public feels about the MAGA movement and the Republican Party in general. 

The midterms

The midterms are often a good measure of a President’s performance in office and public sentiment towards them. Of course, it is not necessarily an outright indicator of whether a candidate is likely to lose at the next election, because it can also give a party insights into what they need to change ahead of their campaigns.

In the current age of anti-incumbency, midterms are also a chance for the public to give the ruling party a bit of a bloody nose and a wake-up call. Still, from a betting perspective, these are still worth monitoring, as they can throw up some surprise results. 

Domestic issues

Donald Trump’s first term in the Oval Office was impacted by major issues domestically, and his second one could well end the same way. Domestic tension is high in the United States, with many communities on the brink of boiling over. The way the White House handles this will play a major role in the next election. 

How the US presidential election works

To European voters, the US electoral system can be a bit of a headache. The system uses an Electoral College. When people go to the voting booth, they are choosing ‘electors’ who are pledging to a candidate. Each state is given a number of electors based on its congressional representation, which is determined by its population. 

In most states, the candidate who wins the popular vote there gets all of the state’s electoral votes, which are what count towards winning the election. To be elected to the White House, a candidate needs to secure 270 electoral college votes out of the 538 available. 

Like most election systems, the US electoral college has plenty of critics. One of the biggest drawbacks of this system is that the winner of the popular vote, ie, the person who got the most votes nationwide, does not always win the Presidency. This has come under considerable scrutiny in elections that are essentially a two-horse race. 

Key US election battlegrounds

While there are some states that are firmly blue or red, several others will switch it up between elections. These are known as the swing states, and they are the ones to watch when deciding which way to bet on an election. 

In 2024, several of the ‘Rust Belt’ states played a key role in determining the result. Pennsylvania is always a big battleground, with its 19 electoral votes helping Biden to victory in 2020 and Trump in 2024. Michigan and Wisconsin are also vital, with 15 and 10 electoral votes each. 

Likewise, the ‘Sun Belt’ states: Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada have all played key roles in recent elections, with all of them voting Republican in 2024. 

Knowing these key battlegrounds and how candidates are likely to perform there can be key to correctly predicting an election. For example, if Josh Shapiro were to run, or be selected as a running mate, that would give the Democrats a key advantage in Pennsylvania, something that was advantageous for Biden in 2020. 

Staying on top of US and world affairs in the lead up to 2028

As the old saying goes, a week is a long time in politics. Well, if that’s the case, then three years is an eternity. A lot will no doubt change between now and the US Presidential Election in 2028, so it is important that you keep up to date with everything that is happening. 

Opinion polls, world news, midterm news, and betting odds are all things you should be monitoring to get a taste of what is to come. Political betting can be an excellent way to land some big wins if you can spot an emerging trend before the bookmakers. Trump’s 2024 victory, for example, was still an outside bet in 2021; likewise, his 2016 victory wouldn’t even have been on the radar three years prior. 

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