Trump's Second-term Economy Is Defined By One Word: Uncertainty. These Charts Show How.

Getty Images; Jenny Chang-Rodriguez/BI

• President Donald Trump's first 100 days have been full of economic activity, from tariffs to federal firings.
• While much of this hasn't yet shown up in job numbers or inflation measures, several other measures are flashing red.
• BI looked back at how stocks, consumer confidence, and business optimism have changed.

It's the 100th day of President Donald Trump's second term, and it's been full of economic changes.

He's signed over 100 executive orders, could push the average effective tariff rate to the highest in over a century, and has cut large swaths of the federal government.

Hard economic data doesn't reflect much of Trump's new policies just yet: The job market is still on the same cooling but strong trajectory it's been on, and inflation was still marching down toward the Federal Reserve's target before the bulk of new tariffs kicked in.

However, that could all change in the coming months. Implementing tariffs could result in a surge in inflation and more stock sell-offs. More reorganization in the federal government could mean more job seekers for fewer positions, sending unemployment higher.

"While we believe that there are policy agenda items that will ultimately be positive for growth — namely, tax and deregulation — uncertainty from potential implications of tariff policy on the labor market and direction of inflation has dampened sentiment," Michael Hans, chief investment officer for Citizens Wealth, told Business Insider.

Sentiment data, chaos in the markets, and interviews with small business owners, consumers, and economists suggest Americans are worried.

"Within 100 days of President Trump's second term in office, Americans saw the first monthly price drop in years in the March inflation report, while industry leaders ranging from Apple to Hyundai to Nvidia have made trillions in historic investment commitments to reshore manufacturing back to the United States," said White House spokesman Kush Desai. "President Trump delivered a historic economy in his first term, and he's running back the success in his second term."

Here's how people feel, how markets have changed, and what tariffs could mean.

Consumer sentiment has sunk

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index has fallen each month this year. Sentiment was better at the start of 2017, when Trump was first in office, despite higher unemployment rates and comparable inflation.

Matt Colyar, an economist at Moody's Analytics, said it's reasonable to think sentiment could drop further once the "material effects" of tariffs and other policies kick in. Some consumers have already started panic-buying cars and electronics, and a handful of companies have already announced price increases.

"I do think hard data is going to converge with soft data and we're going to start to see a much more slowly growing economy," Colyar said.

The S&P 500 is looking better than earlier this month, but short of the year's start

Colyar said this year's ups and downs in stock prices have been driven by reactions to tariff announcements and their potential impacts.

The S&P 500 plunged after Trump announced new tariffs on April 2. The index had somewhat recovered, but dipped after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's comments on tariffs and inflation on April 16.

"The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated," Powell said. "The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth."

Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, told Business Insider many consumers use the market to gauge the economy. She added with its volatility and recent losses, "it's possible that consumers can internalize that and have even worse expectations for the economy, their finances, their jobs."

People are willing to accept less money to get a job

The unemployment rate is low, but people are taking a while to find work. This has been the case since before Trump's second presidency. Expectations of finding a new role have been flat this year.

However, how much money people would accept for a job fell in March from the New York Fed's previous survey in November, suggesting that prospective job seekers are feeling more anxious about finding work and are less choosy with their options.

Business optimism has cooled from a postelection high

Small business optimism spiked when Trump was elected, peaking in December. Since then, the National Federation of Independent Business's small business optimism index has cooled. The index is still higher than readings in the past few years, suggesting some optimism remains.

Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said business owners "have scaled back expectations on sales growth" as they determine how policies would affect them.

The Conference Board's Peterson said that the tariffs would affect some industries more than others. Some small businesses have been stocking up ahead of tariffs or holding off on business plans.

"Oftentimes, when businesses and consumers are concerned about the future because of uncertainty, they will stop their activity," Peterson said. "Businesses won't invest or they won't hire, consumers won't spend, they'll just kind of sit there and wait and see what happens."

The effective tariff rate could be the highest in more than a century

Trump has made several announcements about tariffs, including during what he called "Liberation Day" on April 2, when he announced broad tariffs with rates of over 40% on some countries. Many of these plans have been paused for now. China has retaliated, imposing tariffs on the US.

The Budget Lab at Yale projects the average effective tariff rate could hit 28%, the highest since 1901, assuming that businesses and consumers keep buying their current mix of imports. Even after factoring in likely spending shifts to less-tariffed imports, The Budget Lab estimates it would be 18%, the highest rate since 1934.

The Budget Lab found leather products, apparel, and electrical equipment could especially see higher prices. The increase could be small for food.

Confidence in the economy has dropped

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index, which is based on opinions of current and future economic conditions, has declined.

Peterson said that people are worried about inflation and job prospects. She said there's also uncertainty about taxes.

"If they continue to remain low, there's no impact on the economy really, but if these taxes suddenly spike back up, then that's a real weight on the economy," she said.

The dollar index has fallen to its lowest since 2022

The dollar index has plunged during Trump's 100 days, recently falling to its lowest since 2022.

"Typically, you impose tariffs, the dollar would appreciate, but I think the dollar is depreciating right now because there's a lot of nervousness," Peterson said.

Analysts said Trump's recent comments about Powell, including wanting Powell to cut interest rates immediately and saying he doesn't intend to fire him, have contributed. Investor Louis Navellier thinks the dollar will rebound because "alternative currencies like the British Pound and the euro are also in the midst of their own recessions."

Uncertainty has skyrocketed

In March, the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, based on media stories about the economy, expiring federal tax code provisions, and forecasters, has about doubled its level from January. Many Americans are feeling uncertain about what policies mean for them or the outlook of the economy.

One person told BI she panic bought a laptop because of announced tariffs, a business owner said he's holding off expanding, and a long-term unemployed person hopes he can find a job that fits soon because he's worried about a recession.

The 10-year Treasury has fluctuated

The bond market has also been very sensitive to Trump's tariff moves, which sparked sharp losses for investors.

The 10-year US Treasury yield soared as much as 50 basis points to 4.49% after Trump's tariff announcements on April 2. The swift move in yields sent bond prices plunging, which especially hurt retirees who typically invest the bulk of their assets in fixed-income securities.

The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index dropped as much as 4% in a week as investors reassessed the direction of interest rates under Trump's tariff regime. The new import duties sparked fears of resurging inflation that the Fed could be compelled to fight with higher rates in the future.

The higher interest rates also caught the Trump administration off guard, as they are laser-focused on refinancing government debt at a lower interest rate.

The ups and downs of the bond market in response to policy moves "will likely be a focal point and may help guide policymakers within the administration," Hans of Citizens Wealth said.