Southern And Midwestern Districts Are The Most Vulnerable To Social Security Cuts And Disruptions

Recent attacks on the Social Security Administration (SSA) by Elon Musk’s DOGE team and others in the Trump administration threaten the stability of this critical agency. In addition to endangering the financial well-being of millions of retired, disabled, and low-income people in the U.S., delays and disruptions also harm state and local economies dependent on this income. While Social Security’s “Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance” (OASDI) benefits amount to roughly 5% of national income as measured by GDP, they account for nearly 10% of the income that U.S. consumers can actually spend (as opposed to noncash benefits received by individuals and income flowing to businesses, governments, and nonprofits—all of which are included in GDP).

Since President Trump took office, SSA has announced plans to terminate 7,000 staff positions and close field and regional offices, which has led to long wait times, website crashes, and other disruptions. Trump, Musk, and other senior officials have repeatedly disparaged the agency, calling it a “Ponzi scheme” and alleging, without evidence, that millions of deceased people are receiving improper payments. Rapid policy shifts and reversals, including changes to the types of transactions that can be processed over the phone, have caused confusion among staff and beneficiaries alike, exacerbating the staffing shortage as panicked beneficiaries and would-be claimants flood the agency’s 800 number and field offices.

Significant delays or disruptions in processing Social Security claims and payments can have serious economic repercussions, especially in parts of the country most reliant on this income. While Social Security benefits are generally higher for higher earners, a progressive benefit structure means that they replace a higher share of pre-retirement income for low earners. In addition, health disparities related to age and income result in a higher take-up of disability benefits in older and poorer—often rural—parts of the country. Thus, in 2023, Social Security was 19% of income in West Virginia’s mostly rural 1st congressional district, but only 3% of income in New York’s 10th congressional district, which includes southern Manhattan.

Nationwide, in 2023, income received by people ages 15 and older as reported in the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) totaled $14.5 trillion. That year, OASDI benefits amounted to nearly $1.4 trillion, or 9.7% of this income.1

Figure A maps the variation in Social Security benefits as a share of income by state. Generally, states with higher poverty rates and older populations rely more heavily on Social Security benefits. In 2023, the top five states where Social Security benefits constituted the largest share of total income were West Virginia (16.5%), Mississippi (14.7%), Arkansas (13.9%), Alabama (13.4%), and South Carolina (13.3%). Conversely, Social Security benefits were the smallest—though still important—share of income in the District of Columbia (3.3%), Colorado (7%), Alaska (7.1%), California (7.1%), and Utah (7.4%).

Notably, the South, where poverty rates are higher than the national average, has the highest concentration of states exceeding the national average in the share of income from Social Security benefits.

Looking within states, many communities and local economies in the Midwest and other regions with older populations also rely heavily on Social Security. Figure B maps Social Security benefits as a share of total income by congressional district. Broken down by region, 99 of 155 Southern, 63 of 91 Midwestern, 40 of 85 Northeastern, and 32 of 104 Western congressional districts have an above-average (>9.7%) reliance on Social Security benefits. The South and Midwest, which together represent 57% of congressional districts, comprise 69% of districts with an above-average reliance on Social Security benefits—meaning that any cuts or disruptions would fall disproportionately on these regions.

There is an apparent disconnect between a district’s reliance on Social Security and some of the policies supported by representatives in these districts. In 2023, the Republican Study Committee (RSC) proposed cutting $718 billion over 10 years from Social Security’s retirement and disability programs. Most RSC members at the time (139/176) represented districts with an above-average reliance on Social Security benefits as a share of total income in 2023. Most of these members remain in office and the RSC now proposes cutting Social Security benefits by an even larger amount over 10 years ($1.514 trillion).

People in the U.S. are united on Social Security

Over its nearly 90-year history, Social Security has lifted more people out of poverty than any other program—delivering them benefits securely, accurately, and with minimal administrative costs. These achievements have earned Social Security its status as one of the nation’s most beloved federal programs. Polling consistently finds that more than eight in 10 people in the U.S. say Social Security is important to ensuring their financial security in retirement and are willing to contribute more to preserve or increase benefits.

While people in the U.S. overwhelmingly support Social Security, the Trump administration’s staffing cuts and other disruptions have thrust the agency into turmoil, jeopardizing the $1.6 trillion in benefits that now flow to people each year. This is not only a threat to the well-being of beneficiaries, but also to the health of state and local economies reliant on this income.

Even a two-week delay in processing benefits—which is not inconceivable given the agency’s deep staffing cuts and the loss of essential employees, DOGE’s unprecedented incursions into Social Security databases, and repeated website crashes—could have a devastating economic impact, especially in parts of the country where these benefits account for nearly a fifth of spendable income. Many beneficiaries would be unable to pay the rent or buy groceries, causing immense hardship and having a ripple effect on local businesses. Though Social Security has never missed a payment in its nearly 90-year history, it has also never experienced the kinds of attacks it is seeing now.

1. The ACS income measure, sometimes referred to as “money income,” includes income that people receive from work, businesses, farms, investments, retirement benefits, and government cash benefits, including Social Security. Because the Census Bureau surveys respondents throughout the year about income they received over the preceding 12 months, the timing of this income does not exactly match the timing of Social Security benefits reported by SSA, which we estimate based on monthly benefits received in December 2023 multiplied by 12 (SSA only provides benefit data by state and congressional district for the month of December).